Over the July 4th weekend, flood water surged through central Texas with devastating force. In parts of the Hill Country, more than 20 inches of rain fell in just a few hours. The Guadalupe River rose nearly 30 feet in under 60 minutes.

Campgrounds and homes were torn apart. At Camp Mystic, an all-girls summer retreat, cabins were swept away in the dark. More than 100 people are dead, including at least 28 children, with dozens still missing.

As search-and-rescue efforts continue, for many families the pain is only just beginning. Homes have been lost. Lives have been altered beyond recognition.

This is a terrible, heartbreaking tragedy. But it is not a surprise.

Texas has suffered flash floods before - most notably the 2015 Memorial Day floods and Hurricane Harvey in 2017. But the pace and scale of extreme rainfall events are changing. What was considered ‘once in a century’ is now happening far more often. The conditions that led to this disaster - intense moisture in the atmosphere from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry and slow-moving storm systems, meeting specific geography of steep terrain and lack of vegetation - are textbook examples of how a warming world amplifies risk.

Scientists have warned of this for decades. A hotter atmosphere holds more water. That means heavier rainfall. Add in population growth in flood-prone areas, ageing infrastructure, and limited preparation, and the result is catastrophe.

Nor is this pattern confined to Texas. In October 2024, the Spanish region of Valencia was struck by an extreme weather event known locally as a gota fría. In a matter of hours, up to 500mm of rain fell in some areas - more than a typical year’s total. The floods killed more than 200 people, with widespread destruction to homes, roads and farmland.

In May last year, the state of Rio Grande do Sul in Brazil endured one of its worst natural disasters on record. Torrential rains killed 184 people, displaced hundreds of thousands and left entire cities submerged. Last year central Europe also faced record flooding, straining emergency response services and exposing how quickly systems can become overwhelmed.

These are not coincidences. They are the outcomes of a global climate system under stress. And yet, too often, our public infrastructure, planning processes and emergency services are still operating on assumptions made for a cooler, more stable past.

Reducing emissions is the most effective way to prevent the escalating risks, loss of life and economic devastation caused by climate change. Addressing the root cause is crucial. In addition, we must also take on the challenge of preparing better for climate impacts. We must shift from reacting to rebuilding. From hoping disasters don’t strike to assuming they will - and preparing accordingly.

This does not mean giving up. It means facing reality squarely. The world is already 1.2°C warmer than pre-industrial levels. That warming is locked in for the near term. More intense floods, fires, storms and heatwaves are now part of the landscape of risk.

Adaptation must become a priority and that means:

Spain offers a useful case study. Following the Valencia floods, the government announced a major push for climate resilience. Investments have increased in natural flood defences and regional emergency coordination has been improved. Spain is treating adaptation as a national imperative, not a side issue.

In contrast, the United States - while rich in expertise - has seen cuts and instability in some of the very agencies designed to keep people safe. NOAA, the National Weather Service, and FEMA all play critical roles, yet face ongoing political turmoil and budgetary cuts. Meanwhile, misinformation about cloud seeding and “weather control” continues to spread online, muddying the waters of public understanding.

Science and planning cannot prevent every tragedy. But they can limit the damage. When systems work, people are warned earlier. They evacuate sooner. Fewer lives are lost. Recovery is faster and less costly. Adaptation is not a sign of weakness - it is a mark of responsibility.

This must become the core of how we think about climate risk. It is about towns, rivers, homes and lives. Ultimately, it is about protecting the things we love.

From a business perspective, it is not only about physical assets but about ensuring supply chains and communities in which business operates are resilient. Business continuity depends on the ability of people and small businesses that are part of supply chains to recover quickly from extreme events. Business continuity and resilient communities are fundamental pillars on which economic prosperity depends.

It is estimated the world will face $145 billion in insured losses in 2025, up 6% on last year, and that companies themselves estimate a total of $162 billion in potential financial costs tied to supply chain climate-related risks. Communities, governments and businesses must work hand-in-hand to drive the preparation and planning needed to manage our changing climate.

The floods in Texas are devastating. But they were predictable. The science and risks are clear and the tools to help exist. The next storm will come - whether in Texas, Valencia, Porto Alegre, or somewhere else entirely.

The real question is whether we will be ready.