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Starlink's Shifting Subscriber Base and Expansion in Africa

Published 3 days ago5 minute read
Starlink's Shifting Subscriber Base and Expansion in Africa

The African economic and digital landscape is currently marked by significant strategic movements, encompassing major financial institutions expanding their reach, innovative funding models for nascent businesses, and critical shifts in internet service provision. These developments underscore a continent in flux, adapting to evolving market demands, regulatory pressures, and the persistent challenge of bridging the digital divide.

In a notable strategic expansion, Zenith Bank, one of Nigeria's leading tier-1 lenders and the second-largest by assets, is poised to enter the East African market. The bank is reportedly in advanced discussions to acquire a tier-2 Kenyan lender, a move that would provide it with an immediate regulatory foothold in the region. This expansion marks Zenith's first entry into East Africa and its initial market penetration through an acquisition, differing from its historically restrained international growth strategy. The timing is opportune, as Kenya's new banking law mandates a significant increase in minimum capital, pushing smaller banks toward mergers, recapitalisation, or sale. With a robust ₦614.65 billion ($402 million) capital base following an oversubscribed rights issue, Zenith Bank possesses the financial strength to capitalize on this regulatory-driven consolidation, gaining a first-mover advantage and leveraging its profitability to reassure regulators and depositors.

Simultaneously, Stanbic Bank Kenya is forging a unique path in the East African startup ecosystem. The bank aims to raise $100 million for its Catalytic Fund, specifically earmarked for investing in startups across the region. This initiative is distinctive among commercial banks, which typically shy away from the inherent risks of startup investing, preferring safer bets like SME loans. Stanbic's fund targets sectors often overlooked by conventional venture capital, including agritech, healthtech, manufacturing, and the creative economy. By focusing on younger, riskier ventures, Stanbic Kenya seeks to broaden the funding pipeline, support businesses that historically face exclusion, and potentially cultivate long-term loyalty by backing future industry leaders, thereby challenging traditional banking engagement with startups.

Meanwhile, the satellite internet provider Starlink is making significant strides and facing distinct challenges across Africa. After a seven-month pause, Starlink has resumed direct shipments of residential kits in Nigeria and has established a walk-in center in Lagos, signaling a long-term commitment and bolstering its legitimacy and customer support in the market. This pause was a strategic response to the Nigerian regulator's blocking of a 97% price hike, a tactic previously employed in Malawi under similar circumstances.

However, Starlink's journey in Africa is not without hurdles. In Kenya, despite high initial expectations upon its July 2023 launch, subscriptions dropped from over 19,000 in Q4 2024 to 17,066 by March 2025. Affordability, including high equipment costs and monthly fees, remains a significant barrier to wider adoption. Regulatory pushback from local telecom operators, such as Safaricom's advocacy for mandatory partnerships with domestic networks, further complicates its market penetration. Similar pricing concerns and regulatory hurdles, including non-compliance with Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment laws in South Africa, have hampered Starlink's uptake across other African markets like Rwanda and Nigeria, where it reportedly lost 6,000 subscribers over six months.

Despite these challenges, Starlink continues its aggressive expansion. It recently launched its satellite internet service in Chad, marking it as the 24th African market to gain access to Starlink's high-speed internet, just weeks after its rollout in Lesotho. This expansion into Chad, one of Africa’s least connected countries with only about 15% rural internet penetration, represents a bold step towards bridging the continent's profound digital divide. Starlink's low-Earth orbit (LEO) satellite technology promises speeds up to 220 Mbps with low latency, offering a cost-effective alternative to expensive traditional fibre infrastructure (costing over $30,000 per mile). Experts suggest that a 10% increase in broadband penetration could boost GDP per capita by 2.5%, highlighting Starlink’s potential to transform education, healthcare, and economic opportunities in landlocked nations like Chad, positioning them as potential hubs for innovation.

The broader landscape of Internet Service Providers (ISPs) in Nigeria reflects significant vulnerabilities, with the market experiencing its steepest subscriber decline in years. Between Q3 2024 and Q1 2025, over 18,000 subscribers were lost, and 18 companies exited the market. Leading fixed broadband providers like Spectranet, Starlink, and FibreOne all reported declines, with FibreOne seeing a drastic 42.4% drop. This downturn is primarily attributed to rising operational costs and a pervasive shift among Nigerian consumers towards more affordable mobile internet. While mobile data is convenient and cheaper, it often lacks the reliability and speed essential for critical services such as e-learning, telemedicine, and remote work, raising concerns about Nigeria’s over-reliance on networks ill-suited for enterprise or institutional needs.

Industry experts emphasize that despite the dominance of mobile networks, ISPs remain crucial for Nigeria’s long-term digital infrastructure, providing stable, high-capacity "last-mile" connectivity vital for universities, hospitals, industrial parks, and tech hubs. However, the sector suffers from a lack of coherent policy frameworks and limited funding for initiatives like the Universal Service Provision Fund (USPF). There's a strong call for policy support, potentially through hybrid models inspired by Brazil's Telebras, which funds broadband access in strategic public facilities via private ISP partnerships. Consolidation through mergers, acquisitions, or IPOs, similar to the banking sector, is also suggested as a survival strategy for smaller providers facing financial pressures and operational challenges from factors like extreme weather. The continued decline of ISPs risks creating a significant market imbalance and a developmental gap, hindering the nation's capacity for advanced digital transformation.

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