Slavery in the UK has reached unprecedented levels and is projected to worsen significantly over the next decade, according to a stark warning issued by the government’s independent anti-slavery commissioner, Eleanor Lyons. Her report, published on Tuesday and titled 'Anticipating Exploitation: A Futures-Based Analysis,' reveals a dramatic increase in referrals to the national referral mechanism (NRM), the system responsible for identifying and supporting potential victims of slavery. Referrals have nearly doubled in just five years, surging from 12,691 in 2021 to an all-time high of 23,411 in 2025.

This alarming rise, Lyons explains, is not solely attributable to improved detection methods but also to a deteriorating socio-economic landscape both within the UK and globally. The report meticulously identifies several critical factors contributing to this escalating vulnerability: widespread poverty, rampant global instability, ongoing conflicts, massive global displacement of people, and the systemic breakdown of safe migration routes. These conditions collectively create an increasingly fertile ground for traffickers, who are quick to exploit such profound vulnerabilities.

Looking ahead, the report paints a grim picture of how modern slavery and human trafficking are likely to evolve without decisive action. Lyons warns that artificial intelligence (AI) is poised to become a tool for scaling up and professionalizing exploitation, making it even more insidious. The increased use of digital labor in 'scam compounds' – where individuals are entrapped into various forms of fraud, such as investor and romance scams – represents another emerging threat. Furthermore, the integration of cryptocurrencies into trafficking models is expected to complicate efforts to track and disrupt criminal financial flows. Beyond technological advancements, the report highlights the continued proliferation of gig economy platforms, which can facilitate coercive labor practices. Specific sectors such as agriculture, construction, and mining are identified as areas where coercive labor is particularly prevalent. Disturbingly, the report also raises concerns about an anticipated increase in reproductive slavery, encompassing heinous acts such as enforced egg harvesting and forced surrogacy.

In response to these dire predictions, Commissioner Lyons has issued an urgent call to ministers for immediate and comprehensive action. She advocates for a substantial increase in funding for specialist police units, which are crucial for disrupting exploitation networks and prosecuting businesses that exploit or enslave workers. Additionally, she stresses the necessity of launching a national public awareness campaign to empower citizens to recognize the signs of exploitation and report them effectively. Improving victim care is another cornerstone of her recommendations, ensuring that those who have endured such trauma receive the necessary support to rebuild their lives. Lyons unequivocally warns that without urgent and robust intervention, criminal networks will become increasingly cunning, less visible, and far more challenging to disrupt, making modern slavery an even more entrenched and pervasive issue.

Reinforcing Lyons' findings, a separate evaluation report published concurrently by Greta, the Council of Europe’s influential group of experts on trafficking in human beings, also underscored a steep increase in potential trafficking victims. While Greta acknowledged and welcomed several steps taken by UK authorities recently to combat human trafficking – such as not holding victims accountable for criminal acts committed under duress from their traffickers – the experts strongly urged the UK government to adopt additional measures. These recommended actions are designed to align the country’s anti-trafficking laws, policies, and practices fully with the convention on action against trafficking in human beings.

The Greta report specifically emphasized the critical need for increased resources, greater prioritization of anti-trafficking efforts, and enhanced coordination among law enforcement and other relevant agencies. It also called for reinforced financial investigations to disrupt the economic foundations of trafficking. Furthermore, the report highlighted the necessity of implementing further safeguards to prevent trafficking for labor exploitation, as well as to protect particularly vulnerable groups, including children, migrants, asylum seekers, and homeless individuals, who are disproportionately targeted by traffickers.

In response to these pressing concerns, a Home Office spokesperson affirmed the government's commitment to addressing modern slavery, describing it as a