Long-term owners of Shiba Inu (SHIB) are cautioned to observe a critical signal that has historically preceded downward pressure rather than significant price increases. Exchange reserves for SHIB are once again approaching the crucial 82 trillion SHIB level. This trend is identified not as a temporary fluctuation, but rather as a gradual, structural alteration in the distribution of the token's supply, indicating a shift in market dynamics.

The rising exchange reserves signify a consistent pattern where more SHIB is being deposited onto exchanges than is being withdrawn. This imbalance significantly favors sellers, creating an environment ripe for increased selling pressure, though it doesn't always trigger an immediate sell-off. Tokens held on exchanges are considered liquid supply, typically intended for immediate transactions such as selling, hedging, or use as collateral, rather than for long-term investment conviction.

This market imbalance is already reflected in SHIB's recent price movements. While a recent surge on the daily chart might appear aggressive, it's crucial to view it within its context: the upward movement originates from extremely low price levels following months of continuous decline. The asset remains below its important long-term moving averages, and historical data shows that previous rallies under similar conditions have consistently been met with overhead supply that prevented sustained growth. Critically, there are currently no structural changes to suggest a different outcome, and the persistent nature of the reserve data is raising significant red flags.

The continued increase in exchange balances, without a corresponding reduction in exposure from larger holders, suggests a defensive posture where liquidity is being prepared. This behavior is indicative of distribution, not accumulation, within the current market context. Although there has been a marginal increase in transaction activity, this often results from 'churn' rather than genuine demand when exchange reserves are rising. More transfers do not necessarily equate to an increase in buyers if the ultimate outcome is a greater concentration of supply on exchanges.

Looking ahead, the base case for SHIB suggests a bearish bias and ongoing volatility. Rallies are expected to be sold into rather than sustained, especially as the price approaches previous breakdown zones. The likelihood of a further price decline increases significantly if exchange reserves decisively push through and maintain levels above the 82 trillion SHIB mark, whether through a gradual bleed or a sharp rejection following an unsuccessful breakout attempt.