: Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures rise on trade deal optimism, eyes on Trump’s tax bill and global talks- US stock market futures climbed early Monday, signaling a strong start to the final trading days of a turbulent first half of 2025. Hopes for trade breakthroughs and policy clarity have lifted investor sentiment, helping the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq futures post solid pre-market gains. As of early trading, Dow futures (YM=F) were up 0.5%, S&P 500 futures (ES=F) gained 0.5%, and Nasdaq 100 futures (NQ=F) jumped 0.7%, powered by easing trade tensions and signs of policy momentum from President Donald Trump’s administration.
As of premarket trading, all three major futures indexes are flashing green:
The market rally is being supported by easing global tensions and favorable policy updates, particularly surrounding trade and digital taxes. There are a few key drivers behind this morning’s bullish momentum:
Yes — the rally in US stock market futures comes on the back of renewed hopes for progress in key trade talks. Over the weekend, Canada dropped its digital services tax, a move that was set to take effect within hours but was canceled late Sunday. This came after a tense moment Friday when President Trump paused trade talks with Canada over the tax, which was targeting US tech giants.
The sudden reversal by Canada signals a willingness to compromise and avoid further tariffs. The July 9 deadline for resuming unilateral tariffs by Trump still looms, but on Sunday he told reporters,
“I don’t think we’ll need to do that,” adding optimism to already-buoyant investor expectations.
On Friday, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) closed at new record highs not seen since February, a month marked by the start of sharp tariff-related swings in the market. All three major indexes — including the Dow Jones Industrial Average — finished higher, giving the market a boost heading into this shortened holiday week.
The S&P and Nasdaq records underscore how investor confidence has returned after months of trade uncertainty and interest rate fears. The tech-heavy Nasdaq especially benefited from strong demand for AI and semiconductor stocks, while broader optimism about the economy helped lift the S&P 500.
Trade momentum is also building on other fronts. India extended its Washington visit, signaling it’s close to finalizing a bilateral trade deal with the US. Meanwhile, Trump administration officials confirmed late last week that a framework agreement with China is now in place, though details remain under wraps.
Both developments are boosting optimism that the US is making progress on multiple trade fronts, which could ease investor worries about supply chain disruptions and international policy friction.
Beyond trade, all eyes are on Capitol Hill, where the Senate is holding a marathon session on Monday to review President Trump’s proposed $4.5 trillion tax cut bill. The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) warns the plan could add $3.3 trillion to the national deficit over the next decade if passed as is.
Despite concerns, Republican leaders are pushing hard to get holdouts on board. If the bill passes, it could inject short-term stimulus into the economy — and markets — though longer-term deficit issues remain a risk. Investors are watching the outcome closely as it could directly affect corporate earnings and consumer spending power.
The show solid strength, continuing the momentum from last week as investors respond to easing trade tensions and policy clarity from Washington. The remain near record highs, reflecting continued investor optimism, especially after strong tech and retail earnings last week. continue to rise, powered by strong tech performance, ongoing AI innovation momentum, and easing fears around tariffs and regulatory pressure. Several small-cap names also saw extreme premarket volatility: With a holiday-shortened trading week, investors will be watching:
This is a holiday-shortened week for Wall Street. Trading will end early at 1 p.m. ET on Thursday, and the markets will remain closed on Friday, July 4th, in observance of Independence Day.
That means most trading action — including any reaction to Trump’s Senate tax negotiations or updates from global trade talks — will be compressed into just four days, possibly increasing volatility in a market already prone to sharp swings.
To sum up, the US stock market today is reflecting a wave of cautious optimism. Rising futures, record closes last week, and softening trade tensions are pointing to a strong finish to the first half of 2025. However, risks remain — particularly around Trump’s large-scale tax proposal, the July 9 tariff deadline, and the fragility of ongoing negotiations with key partners like Canada, China, and India.
With markets heading into a short trading week, investors may want to stay alert to headlines and policy shifts, especially with major political and economic decisions happening in real time. As President Trump pushes forward with his economic agenda, the balance between short-term stimulus and long-term sustainability remains in focus for Wall Street.
US stock market futures are rising due to trade deal optimism with Canada, China, and India.
Q2: What is Trump’s $4.5 trillion tax bill about?
Trump's tax bill aims to cut taxes but could raise the deficit by $3.3 trillion over 10 years.
