Predicting Duke basketball's record through its absolutely grueling non-conference slate
Jon Scheyer has scheduled a total gauntlet of a non-conference schedule for the 2025-26 Duke basketball team next season, and these marquee matchups will continue from the opening tip of the season all the way until February. With such a difficult non-con slate, it makes one wonder what a good record would be after it's all over.
The Blue Devils will play seven teams in the non-con currently ranked in ESPN's preseason top 25, including three in the top ten. So, how will the program fare?
Let's predict Duke's record after all of the big-time non-conference games are done. This will not include the Blue Devils' games against Indiana State or Army, as both of those are expected victories.
Duke will open up its season in the inaugural Dick Vitale Invitational against Texas on November 4th at Spectrum Center in Charlotte, NC. The young guys in the rotation will have no time to acclimate to the college game, as the bunch will be thrown right into a matchup against a potential top 25 team. The Longhorns are just outside the rankings, according to ESPN, but have the potential to be a top five or six team in the SEC in their first year under Sean Miller. Texas is bringing in the No. 1 overall transfer class per the On3 Transfer Portal Team Rankings, but all the new pieces will have no in-game experience together. Both Texas and Xavier were not great defensive teams a season ago, and Duke's length and versatility on that side of the ball will be enough to get past the Longhorns on night one.
Duke will take on the Jayhawks in the annual State Farm Champions Classic at Madison Square Garden, an event the Blue Devils have generally played well in historically. Duke is 8-6 overall in the event, yet just 1-3 against Kansas. Across the last two seasons, the Jayhawks have been a relatively disappointing program, given they were ranked No. 1 nationally in the preseason in each of the last two campaigns. Bill Self has also lost his top six scorers from last season's team, and although the program is bringing in a solid group of transfers along with potentially the best incoming freshman in the nation, Darryn Peterson, Duke's depth will lift it past Kansas at MSG, an arena Duke has thrived in historically.
John Calipari's Razorbacks come in at No. 11 at ESPN's current preseason rankings and are bringing legitimate buzz into next season as a potential top two to three squad in the SEC. Arkansas struggled in the regular season in 2024-25, but found itself in the Sweet Sixteen after earning a 10-seed in the NCAA Tournament. Calipari is bringing back key contributors from last season in Karter Knox, Billy Richmond III, DJ Wagner, and Trevon Brazile, despite losing Boogie Fland, Johnell Davis, and Adou Thiero. The Razorbacks are also bringing in two five-star guards in Meleek Thomas and Darius Acuff Jr., mixed with two solid transfer bigs in Malique Ewin from Florida State and Nick Pringle from South Carolina. Arkansas' experience and depth on a neutral floor will prove costly, handing Duke its first loss of the season.
This game has the potential to be the best matchup in college basketball next season as Duke will host the reigning national champion Florida Gators in the 2025 ACC/SEC Challenge. Despite losing star guard Walter Clayton Jr., the Gators might have the best frontcourt in college hoops next season after returning Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, Rueben Chinyelu, and Micah Handlogten. Florida also brought in two high-level guards via the portal in Xaivian Lee from Princeton and Boogie Fland from Arkansas. Some networks have the Gators as the No. 1 team in the land heading into next season, and this roster certainly could be the best in the sport. Despite the Blue Devils getting to host Florida at Cameron Indoor, Duke will not yet be polished enough to take down a squad as complete as the Gators.
An official date is not set as of now, but the Blue Devils will travel to East Lansing in December to face the Spartans on the road. Tom Izzo lost his top three scorers from last season in Jaden Akins, Tre Holloman, and Jase Richardson, but is bringing in four-star freshman Jordan Scott along with transfer guards Divine Ugochukwu from Miami and Trey Fort from Samford. The Spartans built success off being one of the top defensive teams in the country last season, but will be looking for major jumps from guys like Coen Carr, Jeremy Fears Jr., and Jaxon Kohler to remain competitive atop the Big 10. Duke will be firmly tested at this point and will pick up a massive win on the road over the Spartans.
The Blue Devils will have their second game at Madison Square Garden against the Red Raiders in late December, a team ranked No. 10 by ESPN in its preseason rankings. Grant McCasland was able to bring back JT Toppin, a big who could very well be the best player in all of college basketball next season, but lost Darrion Williams to the portal. Despite losing four of its top six scorers from last season, Texas Tech is bringing in a slew of talented transfers such as Donovan Atwell from UNC Greensboro, LeJuan Watts from Washington State, and Luke Bamgboye from VCU. This club is an experienced one, and you can always expect the Red Raiders to be elite defensively. Duke will need an explosive offensive night to afford a win here, likely scoring in the high-80s. However, the Blue Devils' history at MSG keeps them afloat, and Duke picks up a big neutral court win.
The Blue Devils will close the non-con slate with a February date against the Wolverines, another potential top five team in the nation. Dusty May went all in in the portal, cementing a commitment from the top overall transfer in Yaxel Lendeborg from UAB. The Wolverines have built a top five transfer class overall per On3 with the additions of Elliot Cadeau from UNC, Morez Johnson from Illinois, and Aday Mara from UCLA in addition to Lendeborg. Michigan is also returning Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett, two high-level guards from last season's team. Duke will face the Wolverines at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., but Michigan's offensive firepower will be too much for Duke to handle.