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Prebendal rule and the democracy challenge in Africa, By Jibrin Ibrahim

Published 1 day ago6 minute read

The post-1990 return of democracy in Africa skipped many countries that had established successful dictatorships that stood firm. In Equatorial Guinea, the 82 years old dictator, Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, has been in power since 1979, making him the longest-serving president in the world. He initially seized power through a military coup and has since remained in office through multiple meaningless re-elections without a level playing ground for the opposition, massive violations of human rights and lack of a free press. Meanwhile, his son, Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue, is the First Vice President and is poised to ascend to the throne of daddy.

Paul Biya is the current President of Cameroon and is 91 years old. He has been in power since 1982, making him the second-longest-serving leader in Africa. Arrangements are advanced to present him in the forthcoming elections in October 2025 even if he is not aware as he has gone completely senile. When he had his wits around him, he made no arrangements for succession so he must be kept in power till he dies and the fight to the finish between his wife, children and other members of the cabal commences.

Yoweri Museveni (born 15 September 1944) is Uganda’s dictator who has been in power since 1986. He is the third longest serving dictator in the world after the two above. On January 2021, Museveni was reelected to a sixth term with 58.6 per cent of the vote, despite many videos and reports showing ballot box stuffing, over 400 polling stations with 100 per cent voter turnout and human rights violations. Museveni’s son, Muhozi Kainerugaba, born in 1974 is the Chief of Defence Forces and Chairman of the of the Patriotic League of Uganda, a pressure group lobbying for presidency.

These are the examples venerated by so many other wanabe dictators in Africa who want or had wanted to be rulers for life. In Senegal, President Abdoulaye Wade and Macky Sall; in Guinea, Alpha Conde, In Nigeria, Sani Abaca and so on. The latest are the four military dictators that have taken over power in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger and Guinea, actively engaged in democracy bashing and establishing the levers for arbitrary rule in a post truth world in which they have acquired competence in mind-manipulation using artificial intelligence trolls on the internet.

Of course, Togo stands out as an important case study. Eyadema ruled the country for 38 years and his son Faure has been in power since 2005 meaning they have been in power for almost sixty years. This has not gone without resistance. President Faure Gnassingbe’s extended rule has been consistently contested but he has managed to survive. From 26 to 28 June this year, thousands took to the streets of Lome to protest constitutional reforms that will enable President Faure Gnassingbe to remain in power indefinitely. The 59-year-old was recently sworn in as president of the Council of Ministers, a powerful executive role with no term limits under a newly adopted parliamentary system. The protests were swiftly and violently suppressed. At least four people were killed, dozens were injured, and more than 60 were arrested, according to local civil society groups. Such protests have been happening since he took over power when his father died in 2005. But this country which for long has been used to political fatigue and fractured opposition appears to be taking a new turn. There is a rupture and a generational break rejecting 58 years of political inheritance, from father to son, that has brought nothing but poverty, repression, and humiliation. Most of the protesters are young and have never known another leader. They have grown up with frequent blackouts, crumbling infrastructure, joblessness and shrinking freedoms. The constitutional change, which removed term limits from the new executive role and eliminated direct presidential elections, was a red line. What is perhaps more telling than the protests themselves is that traditional opposition parties that have been weakened by decades of co-optation and exile have taken a back seat and artists, influencers from the diaspora and civil society activists have taken over leadership. This new leadership is aware they are on their own because while they were being killed, the international community, the African Union and ECOWAS were silent.

Togo’s unrest also reflects a broader trend across Africa where youth-led movements are increasingly challenging entrenched political orders – not just at the ballot box, but in the streets, on social media and through global solidarity networks. All over the continent, young people are asserting their agency against systems they view as unresponsive, outdated or undemocratic. In Togo, the protests may be domestic in origin, but they are part of a wider regional pulse demanding accountability and renewal. For the youth who led the protests, the message is clear: they are no longer willing to wait.

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That is exactly the same message from the Kenyan youth. The latest from the country is that President Ruto has asked the police to start shooting young protesters in the legs, rather than the heart and head as they had been doing. Dozens of people have been killed in recent weeks as they protested against recent government policies. While Ruto is ordering the killings, he talks about an attempt to violently overthrow his government. The powerful awakening of the Kenyan youth who leveraged social media to mobilise against a finance bill that would have imposed huge tax levies had an important marker. The biggest mobilisers of the protest were the Gen Zs.

They were on TikTok, Instagram and on X. They established a link between government policies and the misery in their lives and have decided they will not take it anymore. Africa, home to the world’s youngest population, has seen a wave of youth-led protests fuelled by frustrations over rampant corruption, poor governance, high living costs and rising unemployment. Gen Z and millennials have protested in Senegal, Kenya, Ghana, Uganda, Nigeria and Mozambique in 2024, and analysts expect this activism to intensify in 2025 as grievances persist. They appear to want more than their parents. They are more informed. They are more politically active and we do live in interesting times. Africa has the fastest growing, youngest population of any continent, with 70 per cent of them under the age of 30.

The problem is that since the Arab Spring started in the early 2010s, successful youth protests have led to collapse of numerous corrupt and authoritarian governments but not to the emergence of new governments imbued with the spirit of good governance the youth have been fighting four. They have the agency to confront and challenge governments but have not worked out how the grow a new leadership that can produce the outcomes they demand. That is the next stage of the struggle.

A protester reacts near a burning barricade during a “national shutdown” against the election outcome, at Luis Cabral township in Maputo, Mozambique, 7 November, 2024.

A professor of Political Science and development consultant/expert, Jibrin Ibrahim is a Senior Fellow of the Centre for Democracy and Development, and Chair of the Editorial Board of PREMIUM TIMES.





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