The World Bank stated this in its latest April 2025 Poverty and Equity Brief for Nigeria which was obtained yesterday.

It had, earlier last month in its Africa’s Pulse report, during the recently concluded Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington DC, declared that more Nigerians would become poor over the next five years, citing Nigeria’s structural economic weaknesses, dependence on oil revenues and national fragility as key barriers to meaningful poverty reduction.

The World Bank, in its latest brief for Nigeria, painted a gloomy picture of the state of poverty in the country, following worsening economic hardship and inequality among the rural dwellers.

According to the report, while 41.3 per cent of Nigeria’s urban population lives in poverty; the situation is significantly worse in rural areas where economic stagnation, inflation and insecurity have combined to deepen hardship.

It stated, “Based on the most recent official household survey data from Nigeria’s National Bureau of Statistics, 30.9 per cent of Nigerians lived below the international extreme poverty line of $2.15 per person per day in 2018/19 before the COVID-19 pandemic,” the report stated.

“Nigeria remains spatially unequal. The poverty rate in northern geopolitical zones was 46.5 per cent in 2018/19, compared with 13.5 per cent for southern ones. Inequality measured by the Gini index was estimated at 35.1 in 2018/19.

“Nigeria’s Prosperity Gap — the average factor by which individuals’ incomes must be multiplied to attain a prosperity standard of $25 per day for all — is estimated at 10.2, higher than most peers.”

These figures highlight the stark economic divide across different parts of the country, which has persisted despite various interventions aimed at inclusive growth.

In its analysis of demographic trends, the report found that children aged 0 to 14 years had a poverty rate of 72.5 per cent.

“Gender disparities were also evident, with 63.9 per cent of females and 63.1 per cent of males classified as poor at the $3.65 per day lower-middle-income poverty line.

“Education levels strongly influenced poverty status. Nigerians without any formal education had a poverty rate of 79.5 per cent, those with primary education 61.9 per cent, and those with secondary education 50.0 per cent.

“Only individuals with tertiary education saw comparatively lower poverty levels at 25.4 per cent.”

The World Bank further noted that multidimensional poverty indicators paint a similarly bleak picture.

‘30.9% of Nigerians survive on less than $2.15/day’

According to the report, about 30.9 per cent of Nigerians survive on less than $2.15 a day, 32.6 per cent do not have access to limited-standard drinking water, 45.1 per cent lack limited-standard sanitation, and 39.4 per cent have no access to electricity.

It also noted that 17.6 per cent of adults have not completed primary education, and 9.0 per cent of households have at least one school-aged child who is not enrolled in school.

The report said before the COVID-19 pandemic, progress in reducing extreme poverty in Nigeria had nearly stagnated, with the poverty rate declining by only half a percentage point annually since 2010.

It added that urban living standards among the poor showed little improvement, and the availability of productive jobs remained severely limited.

“Before COVID-19, extreme poverty reduction had almost stagnated, dropping by only half a percentage point annually since 2010. Living standards of the urban poor are hardly improving, and jobs that would allow households to escape poverty are lacking,” the report read.

‘Weak governance, poor fiscal discipline, others behind Nigeria’s economic decline’

He listed fiscal discipline, inconsistent policies, weak governance, weak institutions, lack of bold economic growth policies and overreliance on oil as key factors behind Nigeria’s economic decline.

Other factors, according to him, are “glaring disconnects in macro and fiscal policies to spur high and sustainable growth; extremely poor quality of infrastructure; limited industrial manufacturing; persistent devaluation of the currency that has eroded earning power; and stagflation with high inflation, slow growth and high unemployment.”

Adesina drew a striking comparison between Nigeria and South Korea, noting that while South Korea had a lower GDP per capita in 1960, it had since surged to $36,000.

He said, “To see what Nigeria should be like in 2050, we must compare Nigeria with other developed economies, especially those that started at lower levels of wealth than Nigeria and are now global economic powerhouses.

“South Korea in 1960 had a GDP per capita of just $158 which was 10% of the GDP per capita of Nigeria at independence. But its GDP per capita rose $2,482 in 1985 (3 times that of Nigeria), and by 2024 its GDP per capita had risen to $36,132 compared to $842 for Nigeria or 43 times that of Nigeria.”

‘High inflation eroding purchasing power’

The World Bank acknowledged recent economic reforms aimed at stabilising the macroeconomy, but warned that high inflation continues to erode purchasing power and deepen poverty, particularly in urban centres where labour incomes have not kept up with rising prices.

‘Urgent reforms imperative’

In response to the deepening crisis, the World Bank recommended urgent reforms to protect vulnerable populations from inflation shocks and boost employment through more productive economic activities.

Nigerians worse off than 64 years ago – Adesina

The president of the African Development Bank (AfDB), Akinwumi Adesina, has declared that Nigerians are worse than they were 64 years ago in terms of per capita income.

He stated this weekend in his keynote address at the 20th anniversary dinner of investment firm Chapel Hill Denham, held in Lagos.

In the lecture titled, ‘Reimagining Nigeria by 2050’, Adesina described Nigeria’s economic growth as “anemic.”

“What is especially worrying is that Nigeria is retrogressing; as its wealth per capita declined since independence, when it was $1,847.

“If we are to look into the future 25 years, then let’s look back into each of the 25 years since independence. By 1985, 25 years after its independence, Nigeria’s GDP per capita declined to $868. By 2010, the GDP per capita grew to $2,120, but by 2024, GDP per capita had plummeted to $824, the lowest since independence.

“So, essentially Nigerians were much better off at independence than they are today,” Adesina stated.

‘Nigeria must get serious’

The AfDB president said that Nigeria, in the next 25 years, must therefore power itself to become a developed country, saying, “Anything short is unacceptable.”

To achieve this, he stated that “we must first have a change of mind-set.”

“Nigeria can no longer see underdevelopment as a reality its people must get used to; but determine to put itself on a fast-tracked trajectory for wealth creating growth for its population,” he said.

Presidency faults AfDB president’s comments

Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, in a post on his X handle yesterday, said Adesina based his conclusion on “figures that do not align with available data.”

Onanuga said: “No objective observer can claim that Nigeria has not made progress since 1960. Today, as we await the NBS’s recalibration of our GDP, we can comfortably say without contradiction that it is at least 50 times, if not 100 times, more than it was at Independence.”

He said Adesina spoke “like a politician, in the mould of Peter Obi and did not do due diligence before making his unverifiable statement.”

Onanuga said “The quoted figures are not correct.”

“Our country’s GDP was $4.2 billion in 1960, and per capita income for a population of 44.9 million was $93, not even one hundred dollars.

“Our country’s GDP did not rise remarkably until the 1970s, when crude earnings ballooned. In 1970, our GDP rose to $12.55 billion. In 1975, it was $27.7 billion, $64.2 billion in 1980, and $164 billion in 1981. Up until 1980, per capita income did not exceed $880. It rose to $2187 in 1981 and dropped to $1844 in 1982. In 2014, after rebasing, it reached an all-time high of $3,200.

“These facts raise questions about the source of Dr Adesina’s figures.”

“Adesina should know that GDP per capita is not the only criterion used to determine whether people live better lives now than in the past. Indeed, it is a poor tool for assessing living standards.

“Its primary usefulness is in giving us the metrics to compare economic output in a country or between countries.

“GDP per capita is silent on whether Nigerians in 2025 enjoy better access to healthcare, education, and transportation, such as rail and air transport, than in 1960.

“This premise alone suggests why Dr Adesina should not have arrived at his conclusion. Compared with 1960, Nigeria today has more primary, secondary, and tertiary schools. We have more road networks and more medical facilities, private and public. We have phenomenal access to telephones. At Independence, we had 18,724 operational phone lines for a population of about 45 million. Over 200 million Nigerians now enjoy near-universal access to mobile phones and digital services, indicating we are better off today than 65 years ago.

“In our country, policymakers know that whatever GDP figure NBS publishes may not capture our economy’s full depth and breadth if it fails to include the informal economy, which some pundits have said may even be more significant than the formal economy. This underscores why Dr. Adesina should have considered all aspects of our economy before concluding.”

‘Government should address naira devaluation’

He stated further that naira devaluation and exchange rate problems should be addressed to support the manufacturers whom he said are suffering.

“Let our manufacturers get it a bit easy to produce so that if they don’t employ more people, at least they can retain those that have been employed,” he added.

According to him, the moment there is poverty, there will never be peace. “The World Bank is right and you know they don’t rely on the National Bureau of Statistics, they come and get their own data by themselves. So their data is a bit more reliable than our own,” he said.

Action Aid blames systemic corruption

Speaking to Daily Trust on the World Bank’s remarks on the poverty rate in rural Nigeria, the Country Director of ActionAid Nigeria (AAN), Mr Andrew Mamedu, said lack of transparency in government activities and systemic corruption largely contribute to the poverty in the country.

He said that the World Bank’s report was not anything new as the organisation had always raise the alarm on the situation.

He alleged that successive government had failed in their promises to tackle poverty in Nigeria.

“When President Boa Tinubu came, his first two polices on fuel subsidy removal and floatation of naira, massively and negatively impacted on Nigerians, especially at the grassroots, which make high proportions of Nigerians poorer.

“Nigeria is a heavily importing economy, the government’s actions also make Nigerians import inflation, Mamedu stated.

“People are still getting poorer and government response was to rebase the economy through rebasing the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), when the reality on ground for everyone to see is the poverty across the country.

“It is unfortunate that some few individuals and the banks are getting richer, declaring trillions of naira in profits, amidst the majority getting poorer,” Mamedu said.

Suggesting the way forward, the AAN boss said that social protection, stable and affordable power supply and other incentives to help the MSMEs would go a long way to ameliorate the situation and reduce the poverty rate in the country.

“Nigerians are hardworking, all that is needed is for the government to making the enabling environment available and things would be better,” Mamedu said.

FG mum on poverty rate

Daily Trust tried to no avail to get a reaction from the Federal Ministry of Finance to the World Bank’s remark on the rate of poverty in rural Nigeria.

The Director Press at the ministry, Mr Mohammed Manga, neither answered several calls nor replied to a text message sent to his mobile telephone line.

Finance minister’s earlier comment

The Minister of Finance and Coordinating Minister of the Economy, Wale Edun, had recently, said the country must achieve sustained GDP growth of about 7% if it hopes to meaningfully reduce poverty and improve the living standards of its citizens.

Edun was last month responding to a question at a press briefing following the conclusion of the 2024 IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings held in Washington, D.C.

He had noted that although Nigeria’s economy was growing at an average of 3.4% in 2024, with the most recent quarterly figure recorded at 3.84%, this level of growth is insufficient to lift millions of Nigerians out of poverty.

‘The way-out’

Adesina highlighted five points to be considered as including universal access to electricity, rapid industrialisation, building a science and innovation-driven country and becoming a “globally competitive global powerhouse in agriculture.”

According to him, “Without reliable power, Nigeria’s economy will be locked in a never ending slow growth trajectory, without transformation.”

“Access to electricity will power industries, drive down the cost of running businesses, and allow the powering of artificial intelligence, data centers, which are essential to rapidly grow the digital economy,” he said.

He advised that the Mission 300 launched by the AfDB and the World Bank, which seeks to connect 300 million people to electricity by 2030, should be tapped into by Nigeria to accelerate its electrification.

“Nigeria must build world-class infrastructure, from highways, to railways, speed trains, airports, seaports, digital and telecoms, and health, water and sanitation. The development of infrastructure should be done via making the country attractive for investors to get market rate of returns from investing in infrastructure.

“It will also allow Nigeria to compete in the Africa Continental Free Trade Area,” Adesina stated.

He also noted that the agricultural sector is critical to diversifying the economy and growing exports.

He said, “At the core of this is the development of the Special Agro-industrial Processing Zones, which will attract the private sector food and agribusinesses to locate close to high potential zones of food and agricultural production.

“The African Development Bank and its partners (Islamic Development Bank and the International Fund for Agricultural Development) are currently supporting with $512 million the development of these zones in eight States of the Federation and the Federal Capital Territory.”

Situation threat to Nigeria’s stability– Economist

In a chat with Daily Trust yesterday, a professor of Economics, Garba Sheka, agreed with the World Bank, saying Nigeria had every reason to be worried about rising poverty which could worsen insecurity.

He stated that the rising poverty also poses a threat to the peace and stability of Nigeria.

According to him, the growing inflationary pressure is pushing many people to the precipice and called for drastic measures on the part of the government to reverse the trend.

According to him, the government is also not doing enough to curb unemployment.

He said giving handouts to people in the name of empowerment cannot tackle poverty as such interventions are temporary.

Sheka said, “Actually there are so many reasons for us to be worried about rising poverty.