The political landscape in the Ayawaso East constituency has reached a critical point as the governing National Democratic Congress (NDC) conducts a high-stakes primary today, Saturday, February 7, 2026. This crucial contest aims to elect a candidate for the upcoming by-election scheduled for March 3, 2026, a seat left vacant following the untimely death of the incumbent Member of Parliament, Naser Toure. Given the NDC’s historical dominance in this constituency, the individual who emerges victorious in today's primary is widely considered the presumptive parliamentarian for the area. The Greater Accra Regional Secretary of the NDC, Theophilus Tetteh Chaie, has confirmed that all necessary arrangements for the polls are meticulously finalized.

For the smooth conduct of the primary, the Ghana Police Service has been assigned the responsibility of managing security throughout the process, ensuring a peaceful environment for delegates. Simultaneously, the Electoral Commission is set to supervise the entire voting procedure, guaranteeing fairness and transparency. Voting is scheduled to commence at 9:00 am and will conclude precisely at 4:00 pm, allowing ample time for the expected over 1,100 delegates to cast their ballots at the Nima Cluster of Schools.

While five candidates appear on the ballot, political analysts and party supporters largely agree that the election has effectively narrowed down to a compelling three-horse race between the leading contenders. The aspirants are listed on the ballot in the following order: Mohammed Ramne (Constituency Chairman), Hajia Amina Adam (Widow of the late MP), Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed (High Commissioner to Nigeria), Dr Yakubu Azindow (Political Scientist), and Najib Mohammed Sani. The three widely tipped favorites are Baba Jamal, Dr Azindow, and notably, Hajia Amina Adam, who is anticipated to benefit significantly from a wave of sympathy votes following the tragic loss of her husband.

To fully grasp the current electoral tension and dynamics, it is essential to revisit the data from the last NDC primary held in 2023 for the 2024 general elections. In that previous contest, the late Naser Toure secured a dominant victory with 452 votes (44.93%). However, the margins for the runners-up highlighted a competitive field: Baba Jamal received 309 votes (30.72%), and Dr Yakubu Azindow garnered 242 votes (24.06%). With over 1,100 delegates converging today, securing the 551-vote threshold for an absolute majority will be the primary objective for all aspirants.

The leading candidates bring a diverse array of academic and professional credentials, each presenting a distinct platform to the electorate. Hajia Amina Adam, holding Master's degrees from UPSA and Milan, Italy, centers her campaign on youth and women empowerment, describing herself as a "distinguished entrepreneur, philanthropist, and community development advocate" with deep ties to Nima. Baba Jamal, a seasoned legal practitioner and former Deputy Minister, views this election as a "homecoming," asserting, "I see this election as a call to come and serve the good people of Ayawaso East," and positioning himself as the optimal choice for parliamentary representation. Dr Yakubu Azindow, a PhD holder in Political Science from the University of Massachusetts, emphasizes his "grassroots connections and track record" as vital for attracting development. Mohammed Ramne, the incumbent Constituency Chairman, relies on his "proven track record" and a message of continuity. Finally, Najib Mohammed Sani's platform is built around "education, women, youth empowerment, sports and recreation," confidently stating that on the ground, "the people believe in Najib to deliver."

Latest polling trends from Global Info Analytics strongly suggest that the "widow effect" for Hajia Amina Adam is a potent and decisive factor, positioning her as the clear frontrunner in the primary. This factor has given her a commanding lead over her closest rivals. According to data released by Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, on Thursday, February 5, Hajia Amina Adam commands 58 percent of voter preference among surveyed delegates and party supporters, making her the clear favorite to clinch the party’s ticket in what is traditionally a competitive constituency. The survey results underscore a significant margin between Hajia Amina Adam and the rest of the field.

The political ambitions of Baba Jamal Mohammed Ahmed, Ghana’s High Commissioner to Nigeria, appear to face a significant hurdle, as new data indicates his support base in the Ayawaso East NDC primary has hit a rigid ceiling. According to the final pre-election projection by Global InfoAnalytics, the veteran politician and former MP for Akwatia is unlikely to secure more than 38 percent of the delegate vote in today’s crucial primary. The findings, presented by Mussa Dankwah, place Hajia Amina Adam in an even more commanding position, projecting her to secure approximately 54 percent of the total votes cast, effectively clinching the party’s ticket in a single round of voting.

Mr. Dankwah elaborated that the projection of 38 percent for Baba Jamal represents his absolute highest share, even under the most optimistic conditions for his campaign. The data explicitly shows that despite Baba Jamal’s extensive political experience and his high-profile return from Abuja specifically to contest this seat, he has struggled significantly to erode the broad grassroots appeal and established connection of the incumbent's widow. "Mr. Dankwah noted that even under the most favorable conditions for Baba Jamal, the data show a significant gap between the two leading contenders, making a dramatic late shift in voter preference improbable," the report stated. The forecast carries a margin of error of approximately 3.2 percent, meaning that even if the results swing in the High Commissioner's favor at the narrowest end of the range, he would still trail by a double-digit margin.

A critical factor contributing to Baba Jamal’s projected underperformance appears to be the failure of a specific campaign narrative. The pollster specifically investigated whether the move to challenge the widow was perceived as controversial, or if a narrative suggesting she should not contest was gaining traction. The results were overwhelmingly clear: 66 percent of general party members and 58 percent of the actual voting delegates rejected the notion that it was wrong for Hajia Amina to contest. Mr. Dankwah critically remarked, "So both the delegates and the party faithful disagree with that call, which suggests that some people are pushing a narrative that is not selling, yet they keep promoting it." He further suggested that the Jamal campaign may have fundamentally miscalculated the local sentiment and unique dynamics prevalent in Nima and Kanda, stating, "I think they miscalculated the dynamics of Ayawaso."

While Baba Jamal's projected 38 percent undeniably reflects a solid block of support, acknowledging his standing as a legal practitioner and former Deputy Minister, it appears insufficient to overcome the potent "sympathy plus continuity" factor that is decisively driving the Hajia Amina campaign. The pollster’s final assessment remains firm: "Based on that, I project Hajia to win with about 54%, while Baba Jamal’s highest share will be around 38%," he concluded. With the polls now open at the Nima Cluster of Schools, the nation watches to see whether Baba Jamal can defy these statistical odds and break through the 40 percent barrier, or if the Global InfoAnalytics projection will indeed serve as a definitive epitaph to his 2026 parliamentary bid.