In Nigerian politics, loyalty is currency. And Senator Iyiola Omisore may be ready to cash in. Word on Osun streets is that Omisore, the mathematician-turned-powerbroker, is warming up for another run at the governorship under the All Progressives Congress (APC) banner.

The timing isn’t random, nor is the ambition. Omisore’s calculation seems to be very precise, as one would expect of a mathematician: if political IOUs still mean something in Abuja, then President Bola Tinubu may owe him one.

Back in 2022, Omisore played what insiders now call a quiet kingmaker’s role during the high-stakes APC presidential primary. As party National Secretary, he didn’t just steer meetings; he steered outcomes. While the then-chairman Abdullahi Adamu floated Ahmad Lawan as a consensus candidate, Omisore kept his gaze firmly on the South-West. “My mission,” he said recently, “was to deliver the South-West for the Presidency. Which we are today.”

Mission accomplished, but what now? Enter Osun 2026, with its familiar dance of ambition, alignment, and subterfuge. Omisore wants back in. But APC in Osun isn’t a neatly aligned orchestra. It’s a jazz band, with Bola Oyebamiji blowing his own horn and supporters accusing rivals of trying to play Tinubu against his protégés. There’s talk of loyalty tests, whisper campaigns, and calculated denials. One thing’s clear: Omisore’s move complicates the party’s harmony in a state it barely holds.

So, will Tinubu return the favour? That’s the riddle.

There seems to be more to the story because not long after Tinubu arrived Aso Rock, Omisore resigned as APC National Secretary.

Anyway, Nigerian politics rarely rewards clean debts. Tinubu may owe Omisore, but not necessarily with a ticket. With Osun already politically volatile and rival camps sharpening elbows, endorsing Omisore could spark new fractures. Ignoring him also risks portraying Tinubu as a man who forgets his allies. And in a country where memory is often transactional, that would be a dangerous forgetfulness.