Osun Decides: Adeleke's Victory Rocks Political Landscape, Sets Stage for Future Battles

Governor Ademola Adeleke of the Accord Party has secured re-election in the Osun State governorship election, defeating his closest challenger, Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC). This outcome marks a significant moment for the Accord Party, achieving its first governorship seat in Nigeria, and reflects a complex political landscape shaped by intense campaigns, controversies, and the assertive will of the electorate.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), through Returning Officer Prof. Joshua Ogunwole, declared Adeleke the winner after he garnered 511,067 votes, compared to Oyebamiji’s 444,815 votes, a margin of 66,252. Adeleke won in 19 of the 30 local government areas, while Oyebamiji took 11. Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) came a distant third with 17,180 votes. The election saw 1,016,188 accredited voters out of 2,354,028 registered voters, with 985,079 valid votes cast from a total of 1,005,800 votes cast.

The election was preceded by notable controversies, including alleged inflammatory remarks by Senator Francis Fadahunsi (APC, Osun East). He was accused of urging supporters to “kill” Accord Party members, a statement he later clarified as figurative, meaning to defeat them at the polls. Amnesty International Nigeria promptly called for an urgent, impartial, and thorough investigation into these allegations, emphasizing the need for accountability should evidence establish a criminal offence and condemning incitement to violence. The organization pledged to use its international network to name and shame politicians promoting electoral violence.

Further tensions arose from reports of an alleged attempt by suspected APC supporters to disrupt result collation in Osogbo, specifically in Wards 4 and 5 at GOF Junction, with claims of attempts to destroy ballot papers and boxes. Additionally, an individual alleged to be an APC supporter was reportedly restrained for carrying a gun. Election observer group Kimpact Development Initiative (KDI) reported a 15.3% Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS) authentication failure rate in its preliminary assessment, alongside three violence-related incidents and 19 reports of vote trading. KDI also noted delays in polling unit openings but observed that election materials were generally intact. The Inter-Party Advisory Council (IPAC) also condemned vote buying, describing it as a threat to democratic integrity.

Following his victory, Governor Adeleke expressed gratitude, describing his re-election as a “gesture of thank you” from the people for delivering dividends of democracy, including improvements in infrastructure, education, agriculture, health, and security. He affirmed there was “no victor, no vanquished” and expressed hope that his main challenger, Oyebamiji, would accept the result and personally congratulate him. Adeleke also dedicated his win to Osun voters and pledged to transform the state from a civil-service state to a fully developed commercial state. His wife, Erelu Ngozi Abeni Adeleke, echoed this sentiment, expressing appreciation for the public's support and promising to triple the dividends of democracy, focusing on women and youth empowerment.

High-profile congratulations poured in for Governor Adeleke. President Bola Tinubu called to congratulate him, acknowledging the election as free, fair, and credible, and urging Adeleke to unite the people. Adeleke, in turn, reaffirmed his earlier endorsement of President Tinubu for a second term in the 2027 presidential election, recognizing Tinubu as a son of Osun State. Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and a Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) faction led by Kabiru Tanimu Turaki hailed Adeleke's win as a taste of what is to come in 2027, emphasizing the power of the electorate to resist “anti-democratic machinations” and rigging. Ogun State PDP candidate Oladipupo Adebutu and National Democratic Congress (NDC) leader Seriake Dickson also congratulated Adeleke, viewing the outcome as a rejection of the APC and a triumph of the people's will. Minister of Aviation and Aerospace Development, Festus Keyamo, also congratulated Adeleke and publicly acknowledged his endorsement of President Tinubu for 2027. Professor of Political Economy, Pat Utomi, commented that the Osun election is a testament that voters can beat rigging, emphasizing massive turnout and fighting spirit.

The Osun State chapter of the APC, meanwhile, indicated it was studying the election results across all 332 wards and considering legal avenues to challenge the outcome, reiterating that the electoral process extends through tribunals, appeal courts, and the Supreme Court. The party urged its members and supporters to remain calm and alleged molestation of its members.

The election's outcome highlighted several influential political figures who, despite not being candidates, emerged as “losers” due to their inability to secure victory for the APC. President Bola Tinubu, despite reportedly summoning 76 APC leaders to demand unity and the perceived deployment of federal might, saw the state secured by the opposition. The controversial timing of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission’s (EFCC) freeze on the Osun government account, later reversed by Tinubu, was seen as politically damaging, contributing to public perception against the APC.

APC governors who campaigned for Oyebamiji, including Monday Okpebholo (Edo), Hope Uzodimma (Imo), and AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq (Kwara), faced public backlash and were unable to sway the election. Okpebholo's “dancing governor” criticism of Adeleke notably led to a public confrontation with Afrobeats star Davido, who responded by sharing Okpebholo's alleged WAEC results. Former Osun State Governor and now Minister of Marine and Blue Economy, Gboyega Oyetola, who had been defeated by Adeleke in 2022, also failed in his efforts to regain power for the APC, despite his strong assertions of retrieving power.

Other party chieftains also experienced setbacks. Senator Ajibola Basiru (APC National Secretary) delivered his polling unit for the APC but could not secure the state for his party. Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, a former governor, surprisingly endorsed Oyebamiji after Adeleke defected from PDP to Accord, citing a lack of inclusiveness. However, Oyinlola failed to deliver his own polling unit to the APC, with Accord winning there. Chief Bisi Akande, a founding interim national chairman of the APC, delivered his polling unit for APC but the party ultimately lost the state. Senator Francis Fadahunsi, despite his efforts and controversial remarks, was also part of the losing side in the state-wide result.

Conversely, several figures emerged as significant “winners” beyond the ballot. Afrobeats star David Adeleke, popularly known as Davido, played a crucial role, campaigning openly for his uncle, confronting opponents, actively monitoring election results, and demanding transparency from INEC, notably questioning delays in IReV portal uploads. Pelumi Olajengbesi, spokesperson for the Imole Campaign Council, was another prominent voice, attributing the victory to divine will and the people's endorsement of Adeleke's performance. The Accord Party itself emerged as a significant winner, securing its first-ever governorship in Nigeria, a milestone after years of contesting elections.

Traditional rulers also played a notable role in Adeleke’s victory. Oba Munirudeen Lawal, the Timi of Ede (Adeleke’s hometown), openly urged his subjects and residents of Osun State to vote massively for Adeleke and appealed to President Tinubu for a free and fair electoral process. Similarly, the Ataoja of Osogbo, Oba Jimoh Oyetunji Olanipekun, publicly backed Adeleke, citing his developmental projects in Osogbo, such as the Lameco flyover, and expressing gratitude for his commitment to the town's progress.

The election offered critical lessons for the APC. The party's campaign was hampered by self-inflicted wounds, including the timing of the EFCC's account freeze, perceived religious polarization, the emphasis on federal power, and inflammatory rhetoric. These factors allowed Adeleke to position himself as an “underdog” defending Osun's independence against external pressure, shifting the election's focus from his record to the APC's conduct and perceived federal interference.

The Osun election underscored that federal power is not easily transferable, and voters can differentiate between national and state-level politics. The electorate demonstrated its ability to reject a ruling party despite the involvement of high-profile figures, proving that political machinery, federal influence, and endorsements have limits. The true winner was the voter, reaffirming a core democratic truth: ultimate power resides with the people, who can support a government at one level but oppose its party at another.

However, a crucial warning for Governor Adeleke emerged from this victory: electoral success is not a permanent mandate. The same voters who rejected the APC will eventually judge Accord and Adeleke by their delivery on promises of better infrastructure, improved healthcare, stronger security, employment opportunities, quality education, and accountable governance. Failure to deliver could lead to a similar rejection in the future, emphasizing that the hard work of governance begins anew.