Osun Decides 2026: High Stakes As Election Nears Amidst Security Buildup & Political Maneuvers

The political landscape in Osun State has intensified ahead of the August 15, 2026 governorship election, marked by significant withdrawals, endorsements, and extensive preparations from electoral and security bodies. Two candidates, Adebayo Simon Adewale of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM) and Adedamola Adebayo, popularly known as Fryo, of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), have officially withdrawn from the race and publicly endorsed the incumbent Governor, Senator Ademola Adeleke, who is seeking re-election under the Accord Party.

Adebayo Simon Adewale announced his decision at a press conference, stating it was a result of “deep reflection and extensive consultation” with party leaders and stakeholders. He emphasized that his withdrawal was not for personal gain but to prioritize Osun State’s interests. Adewale believes Governor Adeleke deserves another term to consolidate his administration’s achievements and urged his supporters and APM members to back Adeleke’s re-election, aiming to advance peace, stability, and development in the state. Similarly, Adedamola Adebayo (Fryo) of the PDP also declared his withdrawal and endorsement of Governor Adeleke at a separate briefing in Osogbo, calling on all PDP members and structures to support Adeleke’s bid to remain in office until 2030.

These withdrawals come less than 24 hours before the election, influencing the political dynamics. Governor Adeleke is contesting on the Accord Party platform, while Bola Oyebamiji represents the All Progressives Congress (APC), and Najeem Salaam is the candidate for the African Democratic Congress (ADC). The incumbent governor, Ademola Adeleke, had transitioned from the PDP to the Accord Party in December, further shaping the contest.

The Accord Party leadership has expressed strong confidence in Governor Adeleke’s victory, asserting that Osun State is an Accord stronghold where the people are in “one accord” with the governor. They anticipate a landslide victory, which they believe will further consolidate the party in the state and enhance the delivery of democratic dividends. The party also controversially announced the dismissal of its expelled former presidential candidate, Chris Imumolen, for supporting the APC governorship candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, labeling him a “political hireling” with no electoral value. Accord Party accused the APC of resorting to violence, harassment, and intimidation, including the use of federal institutions like the police and EFCC, to suppress the government and people of Osun State in an attempt to compromise the election.

Security measures have been significantly heightened across the state. The Commandant General of the Nigeria Security and Civil Defence Corps (NSCDC), Prof. Ahmed Audi, conducted an operational visit to Osun State, sternly warning against any attempts to disrupt the electoral process. He assured Governor Adeleke and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) of the Corps’ commitment to a peaceful, free, fair, and credible election, emphasizing a zero-tolerance stance against bloodshed and electoral vandalism. President Bola Tinubu also called on INEC and security agencies to ensure a transparent and credible election, directing the Inspector-General of Police and other security chiefs to provide maximum security at polling units and protect electoral officials and voters from intimidation. Armed security personnel from the police, army, and NSCDC have been observed patrolling strategic streets and guarding INEC offices and sensitive material distribution points across various local government areas, including high-risk zones identified for potential electoral violence.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has affirmed its readiness for the election, despite acknowledging pre-election violence and operational hitches. National Commissioner Mohammed Haruna stated that ballot papers, which had to be reprinted to include the Social Democratic Party (SDP) candidate, Francis Olugbenga, arrived in Osogbo without affecting poll opening times. INEC has deployed 5,130 BVAS devices for 3,763 polling units, ensuring redundancies and technical support (RATTechs) in all 332 wards. While worried about the violent environment, INEC expressed hope for a peaceful election, citing past successes in similar challenging situations. Haruna clarified that the IReV portal is for public display of polling unit results and not for automatic collation, enabling independent verification of results. The commission has engaged the EFCC and ICPC to monitor vote-buying and prosecute offenders. To boost voter participation, INEC has engaged grassroots stakeholders and deployed 15 Resident Electoral Commissioners and seven National Commissioners to supervise the election, underscoring its significance as the last off-cycle election before the 2027 general elections. Haruna urged voters to participate in large numbers, believing that strong turnout would deter rigging, and stated that elections could be canceled and rescheduled in cases of over-voting or severe violence.

Election observation groups are also playing a crucial role. Yiaga Africa announced the deployment of an artificial intelligence-assisted system, ERAD 2.0, alongside its Process and Results Verification for Transparency (PRVT) methodology, to independently scrutinize election results. This initiative aims to detect discrepancies between votes cast at polling units and results uploaded to INEC’s IReV portal, as Yiaga emphasizes that IReV’s presence alone does not guarantee authenticity due to less visible validation stages. The organization will assess both the electoral process and result integrity, warning that a compromised process cannot produce a credible outcome. The Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution (IPCR) issued a strong warning to political actors against violence, intimidation, and inflammatory rhetoric, urging all stakeholders to let the ballot decide. IPCR called on candidates to accept results peacefully or seek legal redress, and advised voters to resist being agents of violence, avoid misinformation, and maintain order at polling units. Both organizations stressed that the responsibility for a peaceful election lies with every stakeholder, emphasizing magnanimity in victory and peaceful acceptance of defeat.

For a candidate to emerge winner, they must secure a majority of votes and achieve at least 25 percent of votes in two-thirds of Osun State’s 30 local government areas; otherwise, the election would be rescheduled. The collective efforts of political parties, electoral bodies, security agencies, and civil society aim to ensure that the Osun State governorship election sets a new national standard for credible, free, and fair elections in Nigeria.