Nvidia stock surged 4.47% in pre-market trading after the U.S. government cleared the company to resume H20 AI chip exports to China. This greenlight could recover billions in lost revenue after Nvidia took a $4.5 billion hit when restrictions were enforced in April. AMD stock also climbed 3.18% pre-market as investor confidence in the AI chip market returned. Nvidia’s new RTX Pro chip, designed to meet U.S. export rules, further boosts its China strategy. As Chinese giants like ByteDance and Tencent rush to order, investors now wonder—could Nvidia hit $200 next?
This export resumption could mark a major financial turnaround for Nvidia. Earlier this year, the company had to after the U.S. placed tight restrictions on the sale of high-end AI chips to China. The H20, originally designed to comply with previous export rules, had been held back after additional guidance tightened the rules in late 2024.
Now, the Trump administration has reportedly assured Nvidia that it will grant the required licenses to export the H20 chip. Nvidia is currently filing the paperwork, and shipments could begin in the coming weeks.
If shipments resume smoothly, Nvidia could recover a significant portion of the $4.5 billion in lost sales, much of which was tied to demand from Chinese tech firms like ByteDance, Tencent, and Alibaba, who are already lining up orders, according to Reuters.
The reaction in China has been immediate. Major tech companies are scrambling to get on Nvidia’s so-called “whitelist”—a vetted list of approved buyers eligible for H20 shipments. According to
The Economic Times and
ABC News, Nvidia’s CEO Jensen Huang is currently in Beijing, reportedly meeting with tech influencers and business leaders to fast-track the process.
Chinese firms see the H20 chip as critical for powering AI workloads, including natural language processing, image recognition, and large-scale data modeling. With China’s domestic chip alternatives still struggling to catch up, Nvidia remains the top-tier provider, even under restricted sales conditions.
Meanwhile, Nvidia isn’t just betting on the H20. It’s also introducing a new "RTX Pro" GPU, designed specifically for export-compliant AI tasks in China. Built on its Blackwell architecture, the RTX Pro will target industrial use cases like smart factories and automated logistics, as confirmed by Tech Xplore and El País.
The broader AI chip ecosystem is already reacting. Nvidia’s export approval appears to be a rising tide that’s lifting multiple boats. AMD, a key competitor in the AI GPU space, saw its shares rise over 3% in pre-market trading.
TSMC, in particular, is gaining attention ahead of its Q2 earnings report, while SMCI is benefiting from its ongoing Nvidia server partnerships.
According to MarketWatch, the export license news is also boosting investor sentiment across the tech and semiconductor sectors, especially as it points to renewed demand from the world’s second-largest economy.
Nvidia’s current pre-market price of $171.40—up 4.47%—reflects strong investor optimism following the H20 export greenlight. If shipment licenses are approved within July as expected, analysts foresee Nvidia retesting its previous record highs around $174–$177, possibly even pushing toward the $180 mark before Q3 ends.
The chipmaker could also benefit from an influx of backlogged orders from Chinese giants like ByteDance, Alibaba, and Tencent. If early deliveries begin by August, Nvidia may exceed revenue estimates in its next earnings report, pushing the stock further.
Over the next 6 to 12 months, Nvidia’s stock has the potential to cross $200, especially if: Several Wall Street firms, including those cited by
Reuters and
Financial Times, already project Nvidia’s FY2025 and FY2026 revenues to grow 20–30% year-over-year, assuming China remains a viable market. The company’s $4 trillion market cap could stretch even higher if export channels remain open.
In the broader picture, Nvidia is positioned as the backbone of global AI infrastructure, and with supply chains stabilizing and geopolitical doors slightly ajar, its long-term trajectory looks increasingly bullish.
While today’s headlines are bullish, there are several uncertainties investors will want to monitor:
| |
| How fast the U.S. Commerce Department processes Nvidia’s applications. |
| Whether the U.S. imposes any volume limits or tighter oversight on exports. |
| With pent-up demand in China, Q3 orders could surge, affecting pricing and supply chain. |
| Any new tensions between the U.S. and China could put future shipments at risk. |
This development might also play a role in 2025’s broader chip investment strategies, especially with growing global competition from firms in South Korea, Japan, and the EU. The decision to allow H20 shipments isn’t just a win for Nvidia — it could reshape the entire AI chip supply chain in 2025 and beyond. For now, Nvidia appears poised to regain its footing in China, a crucial market it can't afford to lose.
As Business Insider and the Wall Street Journal noted, this moment may signal a strategic thaw in U.S.–China AI cooperation, even if only temporary. At the same time, it shows how critical Nvidia’s hardware has become to the global AI race.
From a revenue standpoint, recovering even half of the blocked $4.5 billion would significantly boost Nvidia’s FY2025 performance. Investors will also be watching for how RTX Pro sales unfold in China’s industrial automation sector — another emerging growth area.
If all goes as planned, Nvidia's next earnings report could show a marked improvement in both top-line revenue and investor confidence, restoring momentum that had been dampened by geopolitical roadblocks.
Q1: Why is Nvidia stock up in pre-market trading? Nvidia shares rose after the U.S. cleared H20 AI chip sales to China.
Q2: How did AMD stock react to Nvidia’s China update?
AMD stock gained 3.18% pre-market due to improved AI chip trade outlook.
