An explosive new megapoll projects a seismic shift in the British political landscape, indicating that Nigel Farage's Reform UK is poised to secure the largest Commons majority in modern history. The poll forecasts Reform UK winning an astonishing 445 seats if a general election were held imminently, while simultaneously predicting a near-decimation of the Conservative Party, reducing them to just seven Members of Parliament.

Labour, despite being a traditional major party, is also projected to see a significant reduction in representation, with their seat count dropping to 73. This drastic reshuffling of power is presented as a difficult read for many senior parliamentarians across the political spectrum. The seat-by-seat MRP (multilevel regression and post-stratification) poll, a methodology widely regarded for its accuracy in predicting seat distribution, was conducted by communications firm PLMR in collaboration with Electoral Calculus. The survey involved 7,449 British adults and was carried out between September 10 and 18, preceding the annual party conference season.

Beyond the top two projected parties, the poll also shed light on the potential fortunes of other political entities. The Liberal Democrats are anticipated to secure 42 seats, with the Scottish National Party (SNP) following closely at 41. Jeremy Corbyn's 'Your Party' is projected to win 13 seats. Trailing behind the major players, the Greens are forecast to take six seats, and Plaid Cymru five, placing the Conservatives in a dismal sixth position.

The implications of such a result would be far-reaching, with several high-profile political figures at risk of losing their constituencies. Among those potentially unseated by Reform UK are prominent Conservatives including leader Kemi Badenoch, Robert Jenrick, Suella Braverman, Rishi Sunak, and Iain Duncan Smith. Senior Labour figures are also not immune, with Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and Energy Secretary Ed Miliband all facing potential ousting by Reform. Furthermore, the polling indicated that Shabana Mahmood and Wes Streeting could lose their seats to 'Your Party'.

Voter priorities were also a key focus of the poll, with the economy and the rising cost of living emerging as the most pressing concerns. A substantial 59 percent of voters identified these as the most important issues requiring action this autumn. Immigration and border control ranked as a top priority for 47 percent of voters, particularly concerning the upcoming Budget. The NHS came in third with 44 percent, well ahead of crime, justice, and policing, which garnered 22 percent of voter attention.

Kevin Craig, CEO of PLMR, commented on the findings, highlighting a 'remarkable fall from grace for the Conservative Party' and underscoring where voter priorities truly lie. He noted the electorate's demand for action on the economy first and foremost, alongside persistent concerns regarding immigration and the NHS, observing 'unprecedented pressure' on traditional party loyalties. Craig's message to the Government was clear: to 'forget the slogans and the clever language' and instead focus on 'delivering more money into working people's pockets' to bolster support before the next election, anticipated in 2029.

Martin Baxter, founder of Electoral Calculus, added his perspective, emphasizing the 'volatile political landscape'. He identified two counteracting trends: while anti-Reform tactical voting could cost Reform UK dozens of seats as voters might back candidates merely to block them, the emergence of 'Your Party' fragments the left-of-centre vote, potentially aiding Reform UK and complicating matters for Labour. Baxter reiterated that voters are making their priorities – economy, immigration, and the NHS – explicit ahead of the Autumn Budget. He concluded that Labour faces a significant challenge to defend its leadership and deliver on these priorities, or risk falling further behind as Reform UK seeks to consolidate its projected gains.