The Indian equity markets concluded the week on a robust note, extending the Nifty's winning streak for the fourth consecutive session. The Nifty 50 closed 89 points higher at 25,638, marking its highest level since October 1, 2024, and securing a second consecutive weekly gain of over 2% for frontline indices. Investor sentiment remained overwhelmingly strong, propelling the market near its day's high despite an otherwise rangebound session. This bullish momentum was significantly reinforced by a sharp intraday rally, resilient support zones, and strategic time-based inflection points aligning with recent market moves.

A major catalyst for the market's dramatic breakout has been the resurgence of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who staged a spectacular comeback as net buyers. Notably, FIIs pumped in over ₹12,500 crore in equity inflows on Thursday, marking their highest single-day buying spree in eight months. This renewed confidence is evident particularly in sectors like banking, capital goods, and autos, though their buying remains measured and data-driven, with some hedging through index options. Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Investments, noted that key catalysts like a ceasefire in the Middle East and optimism on easing trade tensions have cleared investor uncertainty, contributing to improved market stability.

Global factors have also played a crucial supportive role. US index futures showed marginal positivity, while a decline in the US dollar index, amid weak Q1 US GDP data (0.5% contraction versus 2.4% growth in Q4 2024), provided significant support to Indian equities. Furthermore, the week witnessed an 11% plunge in crude oil prices, removing a major economic headwind and easing inflation concerns, thereby boosting corporate margin expectations. The Indian rupee also appreciated by 1.3% for the week, its best weekly performance since January 2023, creating a favorable macro backdrop. Hints from US President Trump regarding significant progress in a long-awaited bilateral trade agreement with India further fueled optimism.

Sectoral performance reflected this widespread bullishness. Banking stocks continued their rally, pushing the Nifty Bank index to a fresh all-time high above the 57,400 mark (reaching 57,475.40). This sectoral leadership often precedes broader market breakouts. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 indices continued their strong run for the sixth consecutive day, closing at their highest levels since January 3. Among sectoral indices, Nifty Oil & Gas, Healthcare, and Pharma were top performers, while Realty, IT, and FMCG ended in the red. Top Nifty gainers included Jio Financial, Asian Paints, and Apollo Hospitals, while Tata Consumer, Dr. Reddy's, and Wipro saw some profit booking.

Several individual stocks also made headlines. IndusInd Bank shares rose 3% amid reports of top private sector bankers vying for its CEO role, including Rajiv Anand (Axis Bank), Anup Saha (Bajaj Finance), and Rahul Shukla (HDFC Bank). BHEL secured a ₹6,500 crore order for six thermal units from Adani Power. Hindustan Aeronautics recommended a final dividend of ₹15 per share. ITD Cementation secured a $67.4 million international marine contract in Abu Dhabi. Piramal Enterprises invested ₹700 crore in its arm, Piramal Finance. Alembic Pharmaceuticals received US FDA approval for Doxorubicin Hydrochloride Injection. GAIL is set to acquire a 106.75 crore equity share stake in Talcher Fertilizer. Hindustan Oil Exploration Company halted production at Block B-80 due to adverse weather. Central Bank Of India acquired a 25.18% stake in Future Generali India Life Insurance Company. Prestige Estates and Arihant Group signed an agreement for a premium residential project in Velachery with a Gross Development Value over ₹1,600 crore. Le Lavoir signed an MoU to acquire a 64.50% stake in Ghantiram Foods. The metal index also outperformed, fueled by positive news related to the Israel-Iran ceasefire and improved global demand.

From a technical standpoint, the Nifty has clearly broken out of a 31-day consolidation cage. Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities highlighted that the Nifty is trading above key short-term moving averages and has entered the downward gap zone of 25,640-25,740 (created on October 3, 2024). A decisive close above 25,740 could push the index towards the psychological and technical resistance at 26,000, with further resistance at 26,234. Support levels are identified at 25,566, 25,434, 25,320, 25,120, 24,978, and 24,856. Om Mehra of SAMCO Securities stated that for Nifty Bank, a constructive outlook remains as long as it sustains above 56,800-57,000, with a close above 57,500 potentially opening the gate towards 58,000, and 55,800 serving as a key short-term support.

Harshubh Mahesh Shah, Director at Wealthview Analytics, emphasized the precision of time-based forecasting, noting that June 25 was a high-alert reversal window which the Nifty responded to in a textbook manner. June 30, 2025, is identified as a crucial decision day, where a breakout or breakdown from the day's high/low could determine the next major directional leg for Nifty. Intraday time slots for July 1-5 have also been provided for tactical traders to identify potential trend shifts or entry/exit points. Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO of Octanom Tech, characterized the Indian market as being in a “mature uptrend” though showing signs of consolidation near all-time highs. He advised caution around the 26,000-26,200 resistance zone, suggesting buying opportunities on retracements towards 25,000-24,700.

Looking ahead, experts maintain a positive outlook. Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal expects a steady uptrend supported by improving institutional inflows, prospects of a US-India trade deal, and sectoral tailwinds from RBI's liquidity measures and an above-average monsoon forecast. Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking believes the Nifty will gradually move towards its all-time high, advising a “buy-on-dips” approach. Vikram Kasat of PL Capital highlighted that markets appear upbeat, backed by falling crude, a strong rupee, and stable global sentiment, urging investors to watch macroeconomic cues. Rahul Ghose noted that the Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Bank are standout performers, with Bank Nifty showing a fresh breakout from a 10-month consolidation zone. Furthermore, July has historically been a bullish month for Indian equities, with Nifty 50 delivering positive returns 73% of the time over the past 15 years, and Bank Nifty 66% of the time, often attributed to a post-June recovery and early Q1 earnings optimism. The approaching first-quarter earnings season is adding another layer of anticipation, with investors focusing on corporate results for early growth indications. Overall, the convergence of multiple macro tailwinds and aligning technical stars suggest a continued upward trajectory, though tactical traders should remain vigilant and disciplined.