Nifty Index Analysis: Breakout Prospects & Future Targets

The Indian equity markets concluded the week on a robust note, with the Nifty extending its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session. It closed 89 points higher at 25,638, marking its highest level since October 1, 2024. This strong investor sentiment helped the Indian equity market end near the day's high in an otherwise range-bound session. Over the week, the market recorded gains for the second consecutive week, with frontline indices rising by more than 2% each. The Sensex surged 2,162 points in just four trading sessions, now less than 2,000 points from its all-time high, while the Nifty needs only 640 points to surpass its September peak of 26,277.
A significant catalyst for this dramatic uptrend has been the resurgence of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs), who turned net buyers on Thursday, injecting over ₹12,500 crore in equity inflows—the highest single-day buying spree in eight months. This surge was partly influenced by hints from US President Trump regarding significant progress in negotiations for a bilateral trade agreement with India. Additionally, easing geopolitical tensions, such as a ceasefire in the Middle East, have contributed to improved market stability.
Sectoral performance reflected this bullish trend, with banking stocks continuing their rally and pushing the Nifty Bank index to a fresh all-time high above the 57,400 mark (specifically, 57,475.40 on Friday). The Midcap and Smallcap indices also maintained their strong run for the sixth consecutive day, closing at their highest levels since January 3. Among sectoral indices, Nifty Oil & Gas, Healthcare, and Pharma were top performers, while Realty, IT, and FMCG ended in the red.
Several macroeconomic tailwinds are converging to support the market's momentum. The week saw an 11% plunge in crude oil prices, removing a major headwind for the Indian economy by easing inflation concerns and boosting corporate margin expectations. The rupee also appreciated by 1.3% for the week, its best performance since January 2023. Globally, US index futures showed marginal positivity ahead of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, and a decline in the US dollar index amid weak Q1 US GDP supported Indian equities.
Market analysts are largely optimistic about the sustained uptrend. Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal anticipates continued market growth, bolstered by improving institutional inflows, the prospect of a US-India trade deal, RBI's liquidity measures, and an above-average monsoon forecast. Nandish Shah of HDFC Securities notes that the Nifty's short-term trend remains positive, trading above key moving averages, and believes a decisive close above 25,740 could propel the index towards the 26,000 mark, with 25,317 serving as immediate support. Rupak De of LKP Securities suggests a