The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has issued a critical weather alert, forecasting intensified rainfall across numerous regions of the country. This period of heightened precipitation is expected to occur between 9:00 p.m. on Wednesday, April 15, and 9:00 p.m. on Thursday, April 16. The KMD's advisory indicates that while many areas will experience rainfall, heavier downpours are specifically anticipated in the Highlands located both west and east of the Rift Valley, which includes the capital city, Nairobi. Furthermore, northeastern Kenya is also slated for significant rainfall.

Accompanying the heavy rains, strong southeasterly winds are also forecast. These winds are expected to exceed 25 knots (approximately 12.5 meters per second) and will affect specific parts of Turkana and Marsabit counties.

A detailed regional breakdown of the forecast includes:

Highlands West of the Rift Valley, Lake Victoria Basin, and Rift Valley Counties: This extensive region, encompassing counties such as Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans-Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, and Narok, is expected to receive showers and thunderstorms in various areas overnight. The morning hours will likely feature sunny intervals, with occasional light rain persisting in parts of the Lake Victoria Basin, before widespread afternoon showers and thunderstorms develop.

Highlands East of the Rift Valley: Areas within this region, including Nairobi, Nyandarua, Laikipia, Tharaka Nithi, Nyeri, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Embu, Meru, and Kiambu, are predicted to experience scattered showers during the night. Light rain might occur in a few locations during the morning, followed by sunny intervals, leading into renewed showers in multiple areas in the afternoon.

Northwestern Region: Turkana and Samburu counties are expected to remain partly cloudy overnight, generally transitioning to sunny conditions during the day. However, it is noteworthy that parts of Turkana county may still encounter strong southeasterly winds, exceeding 25 knots.

Northeastern Region: Counties such as Isiolo, Garissa, Marsabit, Mandera, and Wajir are likely to see showers in a few areas overnight. Morning conditions will fluctuate between light rain and sunny intervals, with showers and thunderstorms anticipated later in the afternoon. As mentioned, strong winds are also specifically forecast in parts of Marsabit.

Southeastern Lowlands: Makueni, Machakos, Kitui, Kajiado, and Taita Taveta counties will experience isolated showers at night. Morning rains are expected in areas surrounding Mount Kilimanjaro, giving way to sunny breaks before afternoon showers develop in a few locations.

Coastal Region: In Tana River, Kilifi, Mombasa, Kwale, and Lamu counties, showers are expected in some areas overnight. Rain may continue into the morning in a few specific places before receding to sunny intervals, with additional showers forecast later in the afternoon.

In a related and urgent development, the Water Resources Authority (WRA) has issued an critical flood warning specifically targeting residents who live downstream of Nairobi Dam. This alert has been prompted by dangerously rising water levels in the dam combined with sustained heavy rainfall. These factors have raised serious concerns regarding the structural integrity of the dam’s earthen embankment, particularly along the Ngong River in the Kibera area, suggesting a potential for failure.

Consequently, residents and businesses situated in low-lying areas have been strongly advised to maintain a high level of alert and to move to safer, elevated ground without delay. The specific areas that have been listed under this evacuation advisory include Kibera, Nyayo Highrise, Dam Estate, Lang’ata, Nairobi West, and Madaraka.