. My expectation for this year is 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. So far, 1 named storm, 0 hurricanes, and 0 majors.

70s across the southern Plains, Ohio Valley, and Southeast. 60s stretch into NYC and Boston.

149 million reach 90°F but that’s not out of the ordinary for late-June, and similar to Saturday. Washington D.C. and NYC should be in the lower 90s. Clouds and rain will keep temperatures in check across the Tennessee River Valley.

Another day of widely scattered storms across the Eastern U.S. in a typical summer air mass. Could be some severe storms along a frontal boundary in the Midwest and Great Lakes (Slight chance)

Mexico is quite wet — for what you can see on the map with the progression of plume of moisture containing Flossie (to be) and Barry (to be) …

The tail end of a frontal boundary stalls out along the Gulf coast by end of this next week and something could spin up from non-tropical origins into a system.

Flossie holds together if it hugs the Mexico coastline as the SST is quite warm. Another weaker system might develop out of a trailing tropical wave.

NHC declared the small area of convection in the far southern Bay of Campeche as Tropical Depression 02L and forecasts it to become Tropical Storm Barry in 12-24 hours.

Note the tail end of the frontal boundary in north Florida by Days 7-8. An area of low pressure could acquire tropical characteristics and meander off the coast. Regardless of development, heavy precipitation amounts will be fueled by the circulation and onshore flow + daytime thunderstorms.

Thank you to readers continuing into this Hurricane Season. My goal is to keep you informed about ongoing extreme weather events inside and outside of the tropics, but also a week (hopefully) heads up on what’s coming. I’ll be using a variety of weather modeling output, some of it may be unfamiliar, but it’s state-of-the-art and industry leading standard.

Flossie decays just west of the tip of Baja California over cool water in 7-days.

Barry is tough to see in the precip/MSLP fields as it remains rather weak ~1010 mb prior to landfall.

Otherwise, Lower 48 remains unsettled in a wet/warm pattern conducive for pop-up storms. Not seeing a “heat dome” develop per se, but much above normal temperatures in the Days 6-10 could intensify further into the 2nd week of July.

Maximum sustained winds could reach 40-50 mph at landfall with the main threat being heavy rain from the rather slow moving system embedded within deep tropical flow.