Faith Chandianya, a journalist at TUKO.co.ke, brings over three years of experience covering politics and Current Affairs in Kenya

Kenya's African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship candidate, Raila Odinga, and the government had initially expressed confidence in his bid, asserting that he is poised to win the race.

Raila will compete against Djibouti's Mahamoud Ali Youssouf and Madagascar's Richard Randriamandrato on February 15-16.

Despite the government's confidence in Raila's victory, governance analyst Ahmed Hashi expressed doubt about Raila's chances of winning the highly anticipated AUC chair election.

Speaking to Citizen TV on Wednesday, February 12, Hashi, outlined key reasons why Raila is unlikely to secure the AUC seat.

He first argued that the security crisis in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) would undermine Raila's chances of winning the election.

Hashi noted that Congolese protesters burned down Kenya's embassy after Goma fell to M23 rebels

His second reason for believing Raila would fail was that Rwandan President Paul Kagame does not consider Kenya a credible mediator in Great Lakes region discussions.

The governance analyst added that on Tuesday, Ethiopia expressed uncertainty about Kenya's former Prime Minister being a strong candidate for the AUC chair position.

He also pointed out Raila's limited support in North Africa, citing Egypt's endorsement of Djibouti’s candidate despite Raila and President William Ruto’s visit and discussions with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

"In North Africa, Raila travelled to Egypt with the president where they were given a red carpet treatment. Right after that Egypt endorsed the Djibouti candidate. So I think its an uphill task," Hashi said.

He stated that he believes Madagascar's candidate and the former Mauritius candidate will support Djibouti, as they are also part of the Francophone group.

Hashi said he believes Kenya’s candidate will face a difficult challenge in the upcoming election, predicting that he will lose.

"Our candidate has a very tough time. I think he is going to lose in the second round of voting," Hashi said.

In a separate development, Siaya Senator Oburu Odinga remains optimistic that his brother, Raila Odinga, will win the African Union Commission (AUC) chairmanship election.

Oburu said Raila's outreach to continental leaders had been well received.

He said Raila assured him that everything was fine. Oburu added that Raila had not encountered a negative response while campaigning in various African countries.

He asserted that the positive reception that Raila has been receiving is a clear sign that he is going to clinch the highly contested AUC seat.

Source: TUKO.co.ke