The Gorton and Denton by-election is currently taking place on Thursday, February 26, with constituents heading to the polls outside of a general election. This hotly contested seat became vacant due to the resignation of sitting MP Andrew Gwynne last month, on January 22. Mr. Gwynne, who had served the constituency since 2005 when it was known as Denton and Reddish, cited medical grounds, including "significant ill health" and mental health challenges, as the reason for his departure. At the time of his resignation, Gwynne was sitting as an Independent, having been sacked and suspended from the Labour Party in February 2025 following the leak of offensive WhatsApp messages. These messages, part of the 'Trigger Me Timbers' group, allegedly contained anti-Semitic slights and a joke about a pensioner's death, leading to his suspension along with other councillors and an MP.

The path to this by-election has been notably dramatic and involved high-level political maneuvering. Notably, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham's application to be the Labour candidate was blocked by the party’s National Executive Committee (NEC), which deemed his resignation would trigger a costly and "politically risky" mayoral by-election. This decision caused a significant rift within the Labour Party, sparking backlash from local activists and senior Labour figures. The constituency itself, described as a "two-halves" seat spanning diverse Manchester wards and working-class Tameside wards, is considered a massive test for the government, with results anticipated Friday morning.

On the eve of polling day, Labour's final campaign push saw deputy leader Lucy Powell and former leader Ed Miliband rallying activists with their candidate, Angeliki Stogia. Despite Labour historically holding this corner of Greater Manchester, their bid to retain power looks seriously under threat. Challenges from Reform UK and the Green Party have transformed the contest into a dead-heat three-horse race. The full list of candidates includes Sir Oink A-Lot (Official Monster Raving Loony Party), Nick Buckley MBE (Advance UK), Charlotte Anne Cadden (Conservative Party), Dan Clarke (Libertarian Party UK), Matt Goodwin (Reform UK), Sebastian Moore (Social Democratic Party), Joseph O’Meachair (The Rejoin EU Party), Jackie Pearcey (Liberal Democrats), Hannah Spencer (Green Party), Angeliki Stogia (Labour Party), and Hugo Wils (Communist League).

Voter sentiment reveals diverse motivations. Some voters in Burnage expressed intentions to vote Reform, driven by concerns over immigration and border control, stating, "I want the boats stopped. It’s just about everything here and immigration." In Levenshulme, support for the Greens was noted, while a 66-year-old voter affirmed loyalty to Labour, crediting them for local services and an accessible MP. The scandal surrounding Andrew Gwynne, which surfaced 18 months after he won the 2024 General Election by a landslide, has significantly damaged voters' trust in Labour. Coupled with a usual post-government nosedive in Labour's polling numbers, Reform and the Greens have surged in popularity, adding to the constituency's tension. Local residents have also voiced frustration over the intensity of campaigning, with one 73-year-old pensioner describing the constant leaflets and door knocks as "like torture" and "a swarm of locusts."

This by-election is being billed as a "battle for the soul of the country," with three front-runners emerging: Labour's Angeliki Stogia, Reform UK's Matt Goodwin, and the Green Party's Hannah Spencer. Recent constituency polls underscore the tight competition. An Opinium poll, based on 401 people, places the Greens and Labour tied at 28 percent, with Reform at 27 percent. Another poll from Omnisis, with 452 participants, gave the Greens 22 percent, Reform 20 percent, and Labour 18 percent. Robert Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, remarked on the unprecedented closeness, stating it's "one of the closest by-elections I can recall." He suggested Reform UK could benefit if the vote between Labour and the Green Party remains evenly split, but any shift could alter the outcome.

Professor Ford highlighted turnout as a "crucial factor" in the election. The turnout in Gorton and Denton during the 2024 General Election was 47.8 percent, significantly below the national figure of 59.7 percent. While Labour might rely on its established organizational machine and known voter base, a high turnout could signal a successful mobilization by challenger parties, which historically bodes ill for the incumbent party, as seen in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election.

Regardless of the outcome, a Labour victory, even if secured, would be framed as "defying the odds" and likely pose a "massive headache" for the party, particularly with dozens of council seats to defend in Greater Manchester's May local elections. Ford argues that either the radical right or radical left taking a traditionally safe Labour seat would be a detrimental outcome for the party's image. He anticipates energized Greater Manchester Reform and Green parties post-election, using the results to build further support, regardless of a narrow defeat. He also suggested that the Labour government may have inadvertently given a "free bonus" to these parties by not aligning the by-election with local elections.

The front-running parties have articulated their positions. Labour acknowledges Green support, particularly in areas like Levenshulme, but believes it to be "soft" and not reflective of constituency-wide sentiment for a parliamentary by-election, emphasizing their robust ground campaign and Sir Keir Starmer's recent appearance. The Green Party asserts that voting Green is the only way to prevent a Reform victory, citing polls and independent tactical voting organizations. They claim voters desire "real change," are rejecting Reform's "divisive candidate," and are embracing the Green message of "hope and change." Reform UK, affirming the "three horse race," attributes their competitiveness in a historically safe Labour seat to their hard work. They criticize the Greens for focusing on "Gaza" and campaigning in "Urdu," and Labour for allegedly "offering food in exchange for political support," arguing both engage in "communal lines" despite claims of opposing division, and that only Reform puts the people of Gorton and Denton first.