The Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA) is preparing to announce new fuel prices for mid-April to mid-May, a period coinciding with a notable decrease in global oil prices. According to recent data, Brent crude has fallen to $66 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has dropped to $61.50 per barrel as of April 11, 2025. These figures represent the lowest levels since late 2020 and a 13% decline since January 2025.

Despite this significant drop in global oil prices, local consumers may not experience a commensurate reduction at the pump. EPRA's newly introduced pricing model, designed to increase margins for oil marketers and transporters, could offset the potential benefits of lower international crude costs. The updated formula takes into account factors such as inflation, taxes, transport costs, and the depreciation of the Kenyan shilling, elements that were not adequately addressed in the previous 2018 model.

Economist Daniel Kathali, speaking to TUKO.co.ke, attributed the decline in oil prices to policies enacted by the US administration, particularly concerning tariffs. These policies have contributed to increased economic uncertainties worldwide. Kathali noted, "This downward trend, a 13.24% decrease since January can be partly attributed to weakened demand from major markets like China. The expectation is that the escalating tariffs which Trump hinted at following his re-election have and will continue to cause economic tensions and fears of a global economic slowdown. This has led to a drop in demand and an oversupply in the market leading to a drop in prices."

EPRA Director General Daniel Kiptoo has emphasized that the new pricing model reflects current economic realities, which the outdated 2018 version failed to capture. This new model emerged from consultations under the Second Cost of Service Study in the Supply of Petroleum Products (COSSOP II) and incorporates taxes, transport expenses, and exchange rate fluctuations. The adjustments within this new pricing structure may counteract the impact of the global oil price decrease, resulting in only minor price changes for consumers.