The European Travel Commission’s Long-Haul Travel Barometer (LHTB 2/2025) indicates a noticeable downturn in overseas travel intentions to Europe for the summer of 2025. The proportion of long-haul travelers planning a European trip has decreased from 41% in the summer of 2024 to 39% for the upcoming summer season. This cooling of enthusiasm is particularly evident in key markets such as the United States, Brazil, Canada, and Japan, although China shows a significant surge in interest.

Affordability Concerns Drive Decline: The primary deterrent for potential travelers is the high cost associated with European trips. Nearly half of those not planning a visit cite travel costs, a figure that has risen by 7% compared to the previous summer. This heightened price sensitivity is influenced by ongoing inflation and fluctuating exchange rates. For instance, in the United States and Brazil, where economic uncertainties and cost sensitivities are more pronounced, over half of the respondents identified travel costs as the main reason for not traveling to Europe.

Other Contributing Factors: Beyond cost, other factors contribute to the subdued travel intentions. Limited vacation time remains a significant barrier for many. Additionally, a preference for domestic holidays influences decisions, particularly in markets like Japan, South Korea, and Australia, where local travel options are also being considered.

Mixed Sentiment Across Key Markets: Travel sentiment towards Europe varies considerably across different long-haul regions. In the United States, 33% of respondents are planning a European visit this summer, marking a 7% decrease from 2024. Brazil has also seen a decline in interest by 6% compared to last year, yet a substantial 45% still intend to travel to Europe, with younger and higher-income individuals showing the most enthusiasm. In Canada, while sentiment is recovering from earlier lows in the year, it remains below the levels of summer 2024; currently, 37% of Canadian respondents are planning a European trip, a 5% drop from the previous year. Japan exhibits the lowest interest, with only 13% planning a visit, down by 5%.

Bright Spots in China and Australia: In stark contrast to the general trend, China’s interest in European travel has climbed significantly, with 72% of respondents expressing an intention to visit. This surge is attributed to the country's economic revival and evolving consumer spending habits. Alongside China, Australia is another market showing a clear positive trend, with 40% of respondents planning to travel to Europe, a 3% increase compared to last summer.

Stable Outlook from South Korea: Long-haul travel sentiment in South Korea remains stable. While only 30% of respondents are considering Europe, there are clear preferences for destinations such as France, Spain, and Italy among those who plan to travel.

Earlier Departures and Shifting Budgets: A notable shift is occurring in travel timing, with more travelers opting for earlier summer departures. While July and August continue to be the peak months for 46% of respondents, interest in visiting during May and June has substantially increased, from 24% in 2024 to 34% in 2025. Spending patterns are also evolving; the share of travelers planning to spend over €200 per day has decreased by 11%, whereas those expecting to spend between €100 and €200 per day has risen to 40%.

Budget Priorities and Destination Appeal: Across all surveyed markets, dining remains the foremost budget priority, cited by 65% of travelers. This is followed by tourist activities and shopping. Transport budgets also command a significant portion (41%), likely reflecting the popularity of multi-destination trips, a hallmark of European travel appeal. Despite the overall decline, certain European destinations maintain strong interest. France, Spain, and Italy are particularly popular choices for travelers from South Korea. Similarly, cities like Paris, Rome, and Madrid continue to attract Australian visitors with their rich cultural heritage, iconic landmarks, and renowned culinary scenes.

Strategic Imperatives for European Tourism: Miguel Sanz, President of the European Travel Commission, emphasized the critical need to bolster Europe's standing as a premier travel destination amidst declining global consumer confidence. He stated, “This means improving the competitiveness and accessibility of European experiences while continuing to showcase lesser-known destinations and off-season travel.” The goal is to ensure Europe continues to offer meaningful, high-quality tourism experiences for both visitors and local residents.

Navigating the Future: In conclusion, the summer of 2025 presents a challenging landscape for European tourism, shaped by rising travel costs and evolving consumer behaviors. However, sustained interest, particularly from markets like China and Australia, offers significant opportunities. By strategically adapting to these trends—focusing on affordability, promoting early-season travel, highlighting multi-destination experiences, and diversifying destination offerings—Europe can maintain its allure for international visitors and solidify its position as a leading global travel hub.