The European Union is weighing a temporary return to its pre-war trade agreement with Ukraine if a renegotiated deal is not finalized before wartime tariff suspensions expire on June 5, EU diplomats said on Wednesday.

The European Commission has proposed a seven-month transitional period, or until a new agreement is ready to take effect, in order to avoid a trade cliff-edge that could affect Ukraine’s already embattled economy.

Since June 2022, the EU has suspended duties and quotas on Ukrainian agri-food products to support Kyiv’s economy after Russia’s full-scale invasion severely disrupted Black Sea shipping routes. The emergency measures enabled Ukraine to redirect exports through the EU, but they are now set to expire.

Despite Ukraine’s appeal for an extension, the European Commission has stated that it does not plan to prolong the Autonomous Trade Measures (ATMs).

“The Commission is not planning to propose an extension of the ATMs tariff suspension, because we are currently working on the review of the EU-Ukraine Deep and Comprehensive Trade Area (DCFTA),” a Commission spokesperson said.

The EU says the review of the DCFTA will focus on aligning Ukrainian production with EU standards, and will include a safeguard clause to prevent market disruptions on both sides.

The proposed transition period comes amid growing tensions with EU farmers, who have staged protests over the influx of cheaper Ukrainian agricultural products, which they claim has driven down prices and undermined their competitiveness. In response, the Commission introduced “emergency brakes” on imports of products such as poultry, sugar, oats, maize, groats, and honey—triggered if imports exceed the 2021–2023 yearly average.

The EU is reportedly considering sharp limits on Ukrainian sugar imports, which have drawn specific criticism for causing price volatility in European markets.

Despite these frictions, trade remains strong. The EU is Ukraine’s largest trading partner, while Ukraine ranks as the third-largest supplier of agri-food products to the EU, according to official data.

Ukraine’s Finance Minister confirmed that discussions are ongoing with Brussels but did not elaborate on the likelihood of a renewed suspension deal.

As the June 5 deadline approaches, both sides face pressure to balance solidarity with Ukraine against the economic concerns of EU farmers, while ensuring the smooth continuation of bilateral trade.

Erizia Rubyjeana

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