The excitement of Emmy nomination morning fades quickly for studios and networks, because the more daunting question is always the same: How do we actually win?

It’s tempting to judge frontrunners based on sheer nomination tallies. If we followed that logic, drama series “Severance” with 27 nods, satirical comedy “The Studio” with a record-breaking 23, and the villainous limited series “The Penguin” with 24 would seem like the ones to beat. But this is the Emmys — nothing is ever that simple.

Looking at the drama categories, the race looks to shape up with Apple TV+’s “Severance” versus HBO Max’s critically acclaimed freshman entry “The Pitt,” which earned a solid 13 nominations.

On Emmy night, winning is rarely about just one factor. It’s about crafting the “winning package,” and both “Severance” and “The Pitt” performed exceptionally well with the Television Academy’s four largest branches: Executives, Actors, Writers, and Editors.

In lead drama actor category, Adam Scott (“Severance”) and Noah Wyle (“The Pitt”) are in a season-long faceoff. Wyle, nominated four times more than 25 years ago for “ER,” might finally get his moment.
Ben Stiller’s riveting finale for “Severance,” titled “Cold Harbor,” could give him the edge in directing. But with co-director Jessica Lee Gagné also nominated, the threat of vote-splitting looms. Just ask “Shōgun” last year.

Britt Lower (“Severance”) also has a shot in lead drama actress, especially as the legendary Kathy Bates is “Matlock’s” sole nominee. Historically, no actor has won when they’re the only nominee representing their series — a 20-year trend that Bates hopes to buck.

Meanwhile, Tramell Tillman could make history as the wordsmith and mysterious Milchik in “Severance.” If he wins the supporting drama actor award, he’ll be the first Black performer to ever win that category, making this one to watch.

In comedy, the conversation isn’t whether “The Studio” can win, but rather: how many will it win?

The freshman satire stomped the nomination record previously held by “Ted Lasso,” and tied “The Bear” for the most-nominated comedy of all time. While “The Bear” posted substantial numbers again, its third season wasn’t as critically adored as its earlier ones. Meanwhile, “Hacks” had a solid showing but missed a major nomination for supporting actor Paul W. Downs.

Seth Rogen — nominated for producing, directing, writing, and starring in “The Studio” — could join the elite club of individuals who won four Emmys in one night, alongside Moira Demos (2016), Amy Sherman-Palladino (2018), and Dan Levy (2020).

Supporting comedy actor could go in several directions: Harrison Ford (“Shrinking”) is a sentimental favorite with his first-ever Emmy nom, while two-time champ Ebon Moss-Bachrach (“The Bear”) and scene-stealer Ike Barinholtz (“The Studio”) are strong contenders.

On the actress side, Catherine O’Hara — nominated for both “The Studio” and a guest turn on “The Last of Us” — could be a spoiler in supporting comedy actress. With “Abbott Elementary” earning its lowest nomination count to date (just six), the door may finally be open for overdue contenders like Janelle James or “Hacks” standout Hannah Einbinder.

The limited or anthology categories are where things get heated.

While “The Penguin” lived up to expectations with 24 nominations, the surprise standout was the British drama “Adolescence,” which scored 13 nods and is considered a frontrunner in at least six categories. Owen Cooper and Erin Doherty are formidable contenders in the supporting acting categories, and the show is also a major threat in the directing, writing and cinematography categories.

Colin Farrell’s turn as the sinister mob boss in “The Penguin” will face stiff competition from Stephen Graham’s gripping performance in “Adolescence.” This one could go down to the wire on Sept. 14.

In lead limited actress, it’s a tight race between Cristin Milioti (“The Penguin”) and Emmy winner Michelle Williams (“Dying for Sex”).

If voters are judging solely on “The Bear” Season 3, Liza Colón-Zayas could be headed for another win after becoming the first Latina to take home supporting actress in a comedy last year.

But “The Bear” is in murky territory. Several past acting wins for the show — like those for Moss-Bachrach and Ayo Edebiri — seemed to come a season early. With mixed buzz around Season 4, and with creator Christopher Storer snubbed in both writing and directing, its winning momentum might be waning.

The final round Emmy voting begins Aug. 18. Expect a flurry of campaigning, strategy and last-minute narrative shifts. The first out-the-gate winner predictions are below. The official Emmy predictions pages will be updated over the next week.

: “Severance” (Apple TV+)
: “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
: “Adolescence” (Netflix)
: “Rebel Ridge” (Netflix)
: Noah Wyle, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
: Seth Rogen, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
: Colin Farrell, “The Penguin” (HBO Max)
: Britt Lower, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
: Jean Smart, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
: Michelle Williams, “Dying for Sex” (FX)
: Tramell Tillman, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
: Harrison Ford, “Shrinking” (Apple TV+)
: Owen Cooper, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
: Carrie Coon, “The White Lotus” (HBO Max)
: Catherine O’Hara, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
: Erin Doherty, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
: Shawn Hotosy, “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
: Kaitlyn Dever, “The Last of Us” (HBO Max)
: Bryan Cranston, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
: Julianne Nicholson, “Hacks” (HBO Max)
: “The Traitors” (Peacock)
: “Antiques Roadshow” (PBS)
: “Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
: “The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)
: “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
: “Adam Sandler: Love You” (Netflix)
: “Social Studies” (FX)
: “Will & Harper” (Netflix)
: “Conan O’Brien Must Go” (HBO Max)
: “I Am Celine Dion” (Prime Video)
: Ben Stiller, “Severance” (Apple TV+)
: Seth Rogen and Evan Goldberg, “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
: Philip Barantini, “Adolescence” (Netflix)
: Matt Wold, “Pee-wee as Himself” (HBO Max)
: Liz Patrick, “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
: Paul Pennolino, “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (HBO Max)
: Cian O’Clery, “Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
: “The White Lotus” (HBO Max) – “Full-Moon Party” by Mike White
: “Hacks” (HBO Max) – “A Slippery Slope” by Lucia Aniello, Paul W. Downs and Jen Statsky
: “Adolescence” (Netflix) – Series by Jack Thorne and Stephen Graham
: “The Daily Show” (Comedy Central)
: “Your Friend, Nate Bargatze” (Netflix)
: “Martha” (Netflix) by RJ Cutler
: “Jeopardy” (ABC)
: Jimmy Kimmel, “Who Wants to be a Millionaire” (ABC)
: Alan Cumming, “The Traitors” (Peacock)
: “The Pitt” (HBO Max)
: “The Studio” (Apple TV+)
: “Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story” (Netflix)
: “Love on the Spectrum” (Netflix)
: “The Simpsons” (Fox)
: Alan Tudyk, “Andor” (Disney+)
: Tom Segura, “Bad Thoughts” (Netflix)
: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “Homecoming”
: “Andor” (Disney+) – “Who Are You?”
: “What We Do in the Shadows” (FX) – “Headhunting”
: “Saturday Night Live” (NBC) – “Host: Lady Gaga”
: “The Oscars” (ABC)
: “The Studio” (Apple TV+) – “The Oner”
: “Severance” (Apple TV+) – “Hello, Ms. Cobel”
: “Adolescence” (Netflix) – “Episode 2”
: “100 Foot Wave” (HBO Max) – “Chapter III – Cortes Bank”
: “Life Below Zero” (National Geographic) – Series Body of Work
: “Bridgerton” (Netflix) – “Into the Light”
: “Agatha All Along” (Disney+) – “Follow Me My Friend”
: “The White Lotus” (HBO Max) – “Same Spirits, New Forms”
: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “A Great or Little Thing”
: “Andor” (Disney+) – “Who Are You?”
: “The Bear” (FX) – “Tomorrow”
: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “A Great or Little Thing”
: “Mid-Century Modern” (Hulu) – “Here’s to You, Mrs. Scneiderman”
: “Ali Wong: Single Lady” (Netflix)
: “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC) – Physical Comedy (segment)
: “Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (HBO Max)
: “The Traitors” (Peacock) – “Let Battle Commence”
: “Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) – “Down to the Wire”
: “The Last of Us” (HBO Max) – “Day One”
: “House of the Dragon” (HBO Max) – “The Red Dragon and the Gold”
: “RuPaul’s Drag Race” (MTV) – “Bitch, I’m a Drag Queen”
: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “After Hours”
: “Emily in Paris” (Netflix) – “Back on the Crazy Horse”
: “Bridgerton” (Netflix) – “Old Friends”
: “The Boulet Brothers’ Dragula” (Shudder) – “Welcome to Hell”
: “Severance” (Apple TV+) – “Cold Harbor”
: “Adolescence” (Netflix) – “Episode 1”
: “The Bear” (FX) – “Doors”
: “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)
: “Music by John Williams” (Disney+)
: “Welcome to Wrexham” (FX) – “Down to the Wire”
: “The Last of Us” (HBO Max) – “Through the Valley”
: “The Righteous Gemstones” (HBO Max) – “Prelude”
: “Star Trek: Lower Decks” (Paramount+) – “The New Next Generation”
: “Black Mirror” (Netflix) – “USS Callister: Into Infinity”
: “100 Foot Wave” (HBO Max) – “Chapter III – Cortes Bank”
: “Andor” (Disney+)
: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – “Bliss”
: “The Studio” (Apple TV+) — Antonio Sánchez
: “The Penguin” (HBO Max) – Mick Giacchino
: “The Americas” (NBC) – Hans Zimmer, Anže Rozman, Kara Talve
: “The Apple Music Super Bowl LIX Halftime Show Starring Kendrick Lamar” (Fox)
: “Agatha All Along” (Disney+) – “The Ballad of the Witches’ Road” by Kristen Anderson-Lopez and Robert Lopez
: “Dune: Prophecy” (HBO Max) – Volker Bertelmann
: “Late Night with Seth Meyers: Corrections” (NBC)
: “Adolescence: The Making Of Adolescence” (Netflix)
: “Cobra Kai” (Netflix)
: “The Boys” (Prime Video)
: “FBI: Most Wanted” (CBS) – “Moving On”
: “Beyoncé Bowl” (Netflix)
: “Étoile” (Prime Video)
: “Severance” (Apple TV+)
: “Batman Vs. Bateman – State Farm”
: Barack Obama, “Our Oceans” (Netflix)
: “SNL 50th The Anniversary Special: Immersive Experience”
: “The Voice” (NBC)
: “The Lion King At The Hollywood Bowl” (Disney+)
: “Dancing with the Stars” (ABC)
: “SNL50: The Anniversary Special” (NBC)