The presidency and several senior figures within the All Progressives Congress (APC) have strongly refuted claims by former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Boss Mustapha, regarding the pivotal role of President Bola Tinubu in Muhammadu Buhari’s historic victory in the 2015 presidential election. Mustapha had publicly asserted that it was Buhari’s personal integrity and disciplined public image—rather than Tinubu’s political influence—that secured his electoral success, a narrative widely dismissed as a deliberate twisting of facts.

Bayo Onanuga, the Special Adviser to President Bola Tinubu on Information and Strategy, unequivocally maintained that “Without Bola Tinubu, there was no way we would have had a Buhari presidency in Nigeria.” Onanuga clarified that Mustapha’s comments were misrepresented and that anyone familiar with the political dynamics of 2015 would understand Tinubu’s central role. He elaborated that Tinubu’s Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN) was the principal component of the merger, boasting six governors at the time, significantly more than Buhari’s Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) which had only one. The idea of these forces uniting to win the presidency had been envisioned by the ACN as early as 2011. While Buhari consistently commanded a loyal base of approximately 12 million votes from the North in both the 2003 and 2011 elections, he crucially lacked the national spread necessary to meet the constitutional requirements for victory. The ACN’s robust presence in the South-West was vital in bridging this gap, providing the additional votes and the necessary 25% in states beyond his traditional strongholds. Onanuga further noted that talks between Tinubu’s ACN and Buhari’s CPC commenced after Buhari’s 2011 presidential election loss, which underscored the urgent need for a broader alliance, ultimately leading to the formation of the APC. He also emphasized Tinubu’s instrumental role in ensuring Buhari won the APC presidential ticket, successfully defeating formidable challengers such as former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso in the 2014 primaries held in Lagos. Crucially, Onanuga highlighted that Buhari himself, both during and after his tenure, consistently acknowledged Tinubu’s contributions, recognizing that his presidency would have been impossible without the alliance and Tinubu’s involvement. Furthermore, Onanuga cited a 2020 report by former SGF Babachir Lawal, who acknowledged Tinubu’s efforts in raising funds for Buhari’s 2015 campaign, albeit suggesting Lawal had only scratched the surface of Tinubu’s contributions.

Key figures across the political spectrum have echoed Onanuga’s stance, reinforcing Tinubu’s indispensable role. Senator Abu Ibrahim, a close associate of both Tinubu and Buhari, strongly criticized Mustapha’s statement, asserting that Mustapha lacked understanding of the political arrangements given his absence from the formative discussions. Senator Ibrahim recalled consistently advising Buhari to align with a strong Southern figure to secure the constitutional requirement of 25% of votes in two-thirds of the states. He stated, “It was only when Tinubu came on board that we were able to get the two-thirds requirement in the western states,” thereby validating that the merger and Tinubu’s involvement were crucial for meeting these constitutional thresholds despite Buhari’s existing 12 million votes. Similarly, Hon. Farouk Adamu Aliyu, another erstwhile ally of former President Buhari, differed with Mustapha during an appearance on Channels Television, emphasizing that while Buhari’s 12 million votes were consistent, they had never been sufficient to secure a presidential victory until the 2015 alliance with Tinubu. Aliyu, who served as Buhari’s returning officer during the critical APC primary in Lagos, bore witness to Tinubu’s vital behind-the-scenes support that facilitated Buhari’s emergence as the party’s standard bearer. He also countered suggestions that Buhari had not reciprocated Tinubu’s support, stating that if Buhari had intended to sabotage the APC’s victory in the 2023 election, he had ample means to do so but chose otherwise. Osita Okechukwu, an APC chieftain, offered a more nuanced perspective, suggesting that Mustapha should be “excused” due to his limited knowledge of the party’s early formation and the “realpolitik” involved, as he was not present during Buhari’s earlier presidential bids. Okechukwu recounted that a proposed merger with Tinubu’s ACN failed in 2011, leading to another Buhari loss, but when the alliance was rekindled in 2013, it produced “the premium golden victory votes that propelled our principal to Aso Rock.”

In conclusion, the strong consensus among these prominent political figures underscores that Bola Tinubu’s strategic leadership was undeniably pivotal in securing Muhammadu Buhari’s 2015 presidential victory. His efforts in forging the APC alliance, ensuring Buhari’s nomination, providing essential geographical spread—especially in the crucial South-West—and mobilizing vital resources, transformed Buhari’s consistent but geographically limited vote base into a winning national coalition. Attempts to diminish these contributions are widely regarded as mischievous and historically inaccurate.