The European Union finds itself at a pivotal moment, navigating a renewed drive for enlargement amidst complex geopolitical realignments and an assertive push for technological sovereignty. This period of intense activity was evident at the recent EU-Western Balkans summit in Porto Montenegro, where key European figures convened to discuss the future of the Union.

António Costa, the European Council chief, articulated a palpable momentum for EU enlargement, a significant declaration given the region's history of unfulfilled promises regarding accession. This optimism was fueled by Hungary's decision to lift its veto on Ukraine and Moldova, allowing formal accession negotiations to commence. Costa views this as a sign of a new 'entente cordiale' among Europeans, anticipating the June EU summit to further solidify this sentiment. While Ukraine is expected to open its first set of negotiations this month, diplomats suggest that the full process, involving five additional clusters of reforms, could extend beyond the Commission's desired July timeline, with three extra months appearing more realistic. However, Costa expressed confidence that Ukraine's parallel efforts would enable a swift conclusion.

Montenegro, a pro-European NATO member and a relatively small, manageable state, is firmly on track to join the EU by 2028. Its accession is seen as a strategic 'win' that would signal the vitality of the enlargement process without excessive complications for the existing 27 member states. While emphasizing that accession remains 'merit-based', Costa conceded the necessity of simplifying the process. This sentiment echoes a joint proposal from France and Germany advocating for 'more structured gradual integration', a 'building blocks' approach where reforms unlock increased EU benefits, including greater access to the lucrative single market.

The path for other aspirants, however, is more arduous. Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama underscored the need for a 'political boom' beyond mere technicalities for enlargement. He previously co-authored an op-ed with Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić, suggesting a willingness to forego full membership rights for a quicker seat at the table. Rama was also preoccupied with protests against a planned luxury resort on Sazan island linked to the Kushner-Trump family, which he described as a 'hybrid attack' fueled by antisemitism and external forces, contrasting with protesters' concerns over the natural habitat.

Serbia's accession journey, in particular, faces significant hurdles. Despite attending the summit amidst security concerns, President Vučić's country has not opened a single new cluster since 2021, a direct consequence of what the European Commission identifies as 'serious backsliding' on fundamental issues such as judicial independence and media freedom. Chancellor Merz of Germany explicitly stated that Serbia's simultaneous alignment with the EU, China, and Russia is unsustainable, urging the country to unequivocally define its future. The Commission hopes Vučić's government will reverse a recent judiciary overhaul as a crucial 'test of goodwill', recognizing Serbia's instrumental role in maintaining regional stability due to its size and geography. The overall takeaway is a real momentum for enlargement, driven by geopolitics, but the next phase will demand a change in the rules of the game, with Europeans increasingly recognizing they must undertake the 'heavy lifting alone'.

Concurrently, the EU is making a determined push for 'tech sovereignty', reflecting a growing awareness that national sovereignty in 2026 is inextricably linked to technological independence. The European Commission unveiled a comprehensive plan aimed at bolstering domestic technologies in critical digital economy sectors: cloud services, advanced chips, and Artificial Intelligence (AI). A key component is the Cloud and AI Development Act, designed to strengthen European cloud infrastructure and foster a new generation of AI technologies. This proposal categorizes sovereignty into four progressive levels, prioritizing European cloud providers for sensitive public contracts, particularly in defense. The Chips Act 2 is another consequential initiative, seeking to stimulate demand for European-made chips and compel key industries, such as automotive, to diversify their supply chains away from heavily subsidized Chinese manufacturers. An open-source strategy is also being pursued, acknowledging that open source may be the most viable path for Europe to compete with integrated offerings from Big Tech giants.

The timing of these initiatives is a direct response to escalating geopolitical tensions. EU decision-makers have long acknowledged Europe's over-reliance on foreign technology, but the 'Age of Unpeace', characterized by the US and China weaponizing dependencies into strategic vulnerabilities, has made this issue too critical to ignore. The package, while a crucial first step, carries risks of retaliation from Washington and Beijing, a concern given that Europe's core industries still heavily rely on last-century technologies. The influence of the first Trump administration is highlighted as a catalyst for mainstreaming the concepts of 'technological sovereignty' and 'strategic autonomy' within EU policy circles, a vindication for French President Macron's long-standing advocacy. China represents the other major variable, with the Commission targeting subsidized products and hostile takeovers through anti-dumping and investment screening investigations. Efforts are underway to diversify supply chains in sensitive areas like ICT equipment, aiming to reduce reliance on single Chinese manufacturing sources and gradually phase out Huawei equipment from critical infrastructure. However, Brussels is wary of its slow regulatory processes versus China's rapid adaptability, necessitating a more holistic approach that requires consensus from member states like Germany and Spain.

The stakes for the EU are considerable, as its economy has lagged behind other major powers, largely attributed to missing the initial wave of the digital economy. A report by Mario Draghi underscored that seizing the AI revolution is Europe's 'last chance' to rejoin the international tech race and rejuvenate its economic competitiveness. While Europe's powerful position as one of the world's largest and most lucrative markets offers leverage, it alone is insufficient. To remain an economic powerhouse, Europe cannot afford to be a technological backwater. This necessitates a bold and pragmatic tech policy that, despite potential short-term economic costs, promises significant long-term benefits, recognizing that this is merely a first step, not a quick fix.

Beyond European borders, a significant shift in Latin American politics is emerging, characterized by the rise of a new right-wing force. In Colombia, Abelardo de la Espriella, nicknamed 'El Tigre', secured a strong lead in the first round of presidential elections, echoing the style and platforms of figures like Javier Milei and Nayib Bukele. De la Espriella pledges to govern Colombia with an 'iron hand', prioritizing crime crackdown, traditional family values, tax cuts for businesses, and dismantling what he perceives as an oppressive state. His campaign heavily utilizes social media and projects a strong nationalist image. A potential victory for 'El Tigre' would extend 'bukelismo' across the continent, reflecting El Salvador's transformation under President Bukele, which, while achieving an 'oasis of peace' by drastically reducing crime, has also seen a centralization of power, constitutional amendments to end term limits, and the implementation of mass incarceration policies. This raises critical questions about the trade-off between security and democratic safeguards.

This rightward tilt in Latin America would place left-wing leaders like Brazil's Lula da Silva and Mexico's Claudia Sheinbaum in a minority camp. The US has intensified pressure on Mexican drug cartels and Cuba's regime, with the potential for Trump's 'Donroe Doctrine' leading to quasi-puppet governments in the region. For Mexico, concerns over US military-style operations along its border directly impinge on national sovereignty. The EU, which previously made a 'strategic mistake' by neglecting Latin America, is now seeking to rectify this through reinvigorated partnerships like EU-CELAC, the EU-Mercosur trade agreement, and comprehensive deals with countries like Mexico. The 'Trump effect' has also spurred a necessity for Latin American economies to diversify away from their powerful US neighbor. Ironically, while the EU seeks closer ties, the emerging Latin American leadership often shares more in terms of substance and style with figures like Trump than with the EU's 'union of values', necessitating a nuanced approach from Brussels.

In other global developments, Armenia is heading to polls with Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan seeking re-election on a pro-West, peace-settlement mandate, while Kosovo holds its third parliamentary election in less than two years. Pope Leo XIV is also embarking on a week-long apostolic visit to Spain, with stops in Madrid, Barcelona, and the Canary Islands, meeting King Felipe VI and visiting a migrant center in Tenerife.