From Paul Orude, Bauchi

The departure of notable PDP politicians to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) seems like a setback ahead of 2027. The Bauchi State governor and many diehard members still believe the PDP can bounce back, with reports that former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is leading talks to form a mega party as the northern bloc gears up to unseat President Bola Tinubu in 2027 over poor performance.

Governor Mohammed has been hailed for his tactical deployment of political sagacity, especially when the chips are down. Even before he famously moved the Doctrine of Necessity that launched him to prominence, his rise from political obscurity to popularity is a script that tough men are made of.

Nicknamed the Giant Killer for defeating a sitting governor in 2015 to occupy the Bauchi South Senatorial seat in 2007, the governor is famed for taking on opponents several times his size with bravery. His emergence as governor in 2019 came against all odds; cruising to a second term as governor was purely based on performance and wide acceptability by the electorate.

Thus, whether his political trajectory has prepared him to lead the PDP Governors’ Forum at such a historic time is a matter for history. However, the Chairman appears bent on working with stakeholders of like minds to reposition the party to its once formidable status.

Governor Bala Mohammed was elected as the Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum in June 2023, along with Siminalayi Fubara as Vice Chairman, amidst a prolonged internal crisis that had lingered since 2022.

Mohammed described his emergence as a mark of honour to him and the entire people of Bauchi State and urged his colleagues to support him to move the forum and the PDP forward. He has not left anyone in doubt about his willingness to make an impact.

To his credit, the PDP Governors’ Forum has met regularly with various stakeholders, including the National Working Committee and the Board of Trustees, to resolve its internal problems. The bold steps and decisions taken by Mohammed’s forum and PDP stakeholders did not go down well with the FCT Minister at some points, a development that strained the once-cordial relationship between Mohammed and Wike. Despite the risk of opposing the likes of Wike, Mohammed continues to exhibit courage and tenacity in the bid to rescue the soul of the party.

Mohammed yet again led governors elected on the platform of the PDP to meet in Abuja on Sunday, at the Bauchi Governor’s Lodge in Asokoro. The crucial meeting was attended by former governors who are members, including the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) Minister, Nyesom Wike.

The serving governors who attended the meeting included Bala Mohammed (Bauchi), Agbu Kefas (Taraba), Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa), Dauda Lawal (Zamfara), Ademola Adeleke (Osun), Umo Eno (Akwa Ibom), Peter Mbah (Enugu), Caleb Mutfwang (Plateau), Seyi Makinde (Oyo), and Lawrence Ewhrudjakpo (deputy governor, Bayelsa).

Former governors included Sam Egwu (Ebonyi), Liyel Imoke (Cross River), Seriake Dickson (Bayelsa), Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi (Enugu), Ahmed Makarfi (Kaduna), Okezie Ikpeazu (Abia), Samuel Ortom (Benue), Adamu Mu’azu (Bauchi), Achike Udenwa (Imo), Jonah Jang (Plateau), Babangida Aliyu (Niger), Udom Emmanuel (Akwa Ibom), Gabriel Suswam (Benue), Aminu Tambuwal (Sokoto), Ibrahim Shekarau (Kano), and Bukola Saraki (Kwara).

Umar Damagum, acting chairman of the PDP, was also in attendance at the stakeholders’ meeting where party chieftains deliberated on internal cohesion and preparations for the 2027 elections. The meeting was the first since one of the PDP governors, Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta State, defected to the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC). The party’s National Working Committee members at the meeting included the acting national chairman, Amb Umar Damagum; National Organising Secretary, Umar Bature; and National Legal Adviser, Kamardeen Ajibade.

The PDP also set up a seven-man reconciliation committee headed by former President of the Senate, Bukola Saraki, to prepare for a “rancour-free” National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting scheduled for May 27, as well as the forthcoming national convention.

Lawal, Mutfwang, Mbah, Dickson, Ibrahim Dankwambo, former governor of Gombe, and Ikpeazu are members of the committee.

The opposition party is grappling with a prolonged internal crisis that has lingered since 2022. The ranks of the PDP have been split over a series of crises ranging from the national chairmanship seat, the national secretary position, the tussle for party leadership in Rivers State, and the congresses conducted.

Others include a court case on the emergency rule in Rivers State, in which the PDP governors challenged the state of emergency declaration by the Supreme Court that removed Fubara from office for six months. The Abuja meeting comes ahead of the proposed National Executive Committee (NEC) meeting of the party, which has been postponed six times.

Impact of Mohammed’s leadership of PDP Governors’ Forum

The decision of the governors elected on the platform of the PDP to elect Mohammed as Chairman will most likely pay off despite the current struggles of the party. Many reasons account for this bold prediction.

First of all, analysts privy to the party believe that Mohammed will succeed, with one of his biggest advantages being that many of the governors still remain in the party despite the internal wrangling. Apart from the Delta State governor who recently defected to the APC, those who hold this perspective argue that the PDP remains a strong opposition party with governors of Bauchi, Taraba, Adamawa, Zamfara, Osun, Akwa Ibom, Enugu, Plateau, Oyo, Rivers, and Bayelsa still intact. Those with this opinion believe this is a good development for the PDP. For example, when you study the current politics of Bauchi, Governor Mohammed has remained in control of the party’s structure. Many members of the National Assembly are still in the PDP, apart from three members of the House of Representatives who said they had defected.

While it is no longer news that Oborevwori has defected from the PDP fold, there are those who posit that the same interests that pushed the Delta State Governor can also pull other elected officials of the APC to the PDP or any other party ahead of the 2027 general election. It is the general belief among watchers of events that political elections in Nigeria are often characterised by defections and counter-defections. As politicians meet, political alignments are being done; decamping and returning will become usual features in the political space among political parties and actors buoyed by divergent interests. It will be recalled that some governors of the PDP who backed Wike against former Vice President Atiku Abubakar in 2023 did not entirely jettison their personal interests or ambitions. Analysts of unfolding events argue that this trend will manifest and apply in 2027, as most of the politicians will also strive for their personal ambitions.

Some top politicians who spoke on the current PDP travails believe there is cause to celebrate for the PDP in the future due to a newfound romance. Their argument is that Mohammed will succeed as the Chairman of the PDP Governors’ Forum and reposition the party in time for the 2027 general election despite its current internal wrangling. Those who hold this view are buttressing it on the premise of the purported alliance between the PDP and the Labour Party (LP)’s presidential candidate, Mr Peter Obi; if well exploited, this relationship can serve as a boost to the PDP. Indeed, Obi has visited the Bauchi State governor on several occasions recently, and pictures of the children of both politicians in London have been sighted. Peter Obi is one politician in Nigeria who still commands a huge supporter base.

Another reason why many believe that Governor Mohammed’s leadership of the PDP Governors’ Forum will turn the current fortunes of the PDP around is the emergence of new alliances and parties floated by politicians who are aggrieved with President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s APC government. The majority of these aggrieved politicians will move to these parties and alliances from the APC if the ruling party fails to meet their interests and expectations. One of the most prominent is the former Governor of Kaduna State, Nasir El-Rufai, who has since defected to the Social Democratic Party (SDP). In this camp are many who worked for Tinubu’s candidacy but have felt sidelined and will likely defect to the PDP in due time.

Another advantage that Governor Mohammed and the PDP stakeholders will hope to capitalise on will be the failure of the APC to handle the outcomes of its primaries across wards, states, and the national level. In case of failure to address this unavoidable problem, there will be no room to accommodate all shades of interests, and the overwhelming aftermath will expectedly reach a breaking point. The clashes of interests will provide fertile ground for aggrieved members of the APC to defect. The case of Bauchi provides an apt case study. Two current ministers serving in the Tinubu government—Yusuf Tuggar, Minister of Foreign Affairs, and Ali Pate, Coordinating Minister of Health and Social Welfare—have contested for the governorship seat of the state in the past. They are currently harbouring political ambitions to contest in 2027 for the governorship seat. Both of them are likely to contest in the APC primaries. If at any point one of them becomes aggrieved next year, the loser may decide to support a candidate of another political party other than the APC. This is because the elites are known to jettison their political differences to support a particular candidate who can protect their interests. This was the case in 2023 when former Speaker Yakubu Dogara, though a staunch member of the APC, supported the PDP presidential candidate Atiku Abubakar. Also, in 2019, Bauchi elites, including APC chieftains, set differences aside to support Bala Mohammed of the PDP, who eventually won. Among these elites were Yakubu Dogara, the late Yakubu Lame, and Tuggar. After Mohammed won, many of these elites later left the governor, as many of them did not get what they wanted. This is a common trait of the Nigerian political elite, which will repeat itself in 2027.

To many analysts, despite current crises, the PDP creates room for meetings to address issues. This, they believe, is a good development, as the PDP stakeholders usually try to resolve the problems in the party. PDP stakeholders have never stopped meeting despite the problems in the party. However, watchers opine that this is not the case with other political parties, which are seemingly afraid to meet and brainstorm. For example, the ruling APC has planned meetings that were often cancelled in the end. In fact, there are those even agitating for the removal of the national chairman of the APC, Abdullahi Ganduje. So, despite the current tribulations in the PDP, if Governor Mohammed continues to put his political sagacity and acumen to bear, the current issues can be turned around for the betterment of the PDP to become a formidable force that will challenge the ruling APC in 2027.