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Buharinomics: Analysing Buhari's economic legacy - CNBC Africa

Published 2 days ago3 minute read

As Nigeria mourns the passing of its former President Muhammadu Buhari, the spotlight inevitably turns to his economic legacy, casting an analytical eye on the milestones and missteps of his administration. Buhari, who served from 2015 to 2023, introduced several key economic policies during tumultuous times, marked by global financial instability and local challenges. However, as Vincent Wai, strategy leader for West Africa at South Africa Investments, elaborates in a recent interview, the Buhari administration's economic scorecard reveals a complex narrative. Buhari's economic strategy was undergirded by the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP) launched in 2016, which ambitiously targeted a 6% GDP growth, single-digit inflation, and an exchange rate stabilization at about 197 naira to the dollar. However, discrepancies between goals and achievements became apparent. The real GDP growth averaged a mere 1.7% over his tenure—a stark contrast to the aspirational figures. Inflation rates soared, culminating at 22% as Buhari left office, while exchange rates plummeted from an aim of 197 to a staggering 750 naira per dollar. Debt remains another significant aspect of Buhari's economic heritage. His administration saw the debt-to-GDP ratio rise from around 20% to 35%, with currency printing by the Central Bank of Nigeria exacerbating the situation. Wai points out that the challenge was not just accruing debt but a conspicuous lack of tangible results from such borrowings. From a figure of 90 million people in poverty at the start of Buhari's presidency, the number grew to 130 million, indicating significant traction in poverty levels despite efforts to steer economic relief and growth. Buhari's tenure coincided with the global COVID-19 pandemic, complicating industrial output and overall economic stability. Many sectors, including investments from both local and foreign entities, saw a decline, attributed to macroeconomic instability and fluctuating exchange rates. Investment in inflation control yielded mixed results, with monetary policy cushioning some impacts but failing to curtail inflation to targeted levels. Wai highlights fiscal discipline as a crucial step for Nigeria going forward, emphasizing the importance of reform-driven governance to invigorate confidence and investment. Current strategies by the Nigerian government need to focus on achievable budget management and enhancing investor confidence, potentially preventing scenarios where Nigeria's debt-to-GDP could exceed 100% by 2030. Additionally, the interview underscores the urgent need for reforms in financial transparency and investor confidence. For example, the reference to Saudi Arabia’s Aramco as a benchmark for fostering investor confidence stands out as a lesson for Nigeria's own petroleum sector marked by hefty investments yet to yield proportional benefits. Lessons from refineries that consumed billions without substantial returns highlight the need for sharper strategic foresight. Looking ahead, Wai expresses cautious optimism regarding inflation trends, projecting a gradual decline but identifying the need for authoritative action on supply and fiscal control. Fresh produce and agriculture might seize inflation drivers, but more robust monetary strategies are paramount. As Nigerians reflect on Buhari's legacy, the pressing question remains how the current and future administration will forge economic strategies that rectify past shortcomings. In an era of global financial volatility, timely and transparent data dissemination, such as GDP figures, will remain a cornerstone for investor confidence. The current administration must learn from these experiences to ensure enhanced economic performance through data-driven policy making and fiscal transparency. While many Nigerians respectfully remember Muhammadu Buhari's tenure, especially his intentions on security and corruption, the economic challenges and systematic pitfalls highlight complex layers and disappointment that will inform future governance and economic planning.

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