Coin WorldTuesday, Jul 15, 2025 9:05 pm ET

2min read

Bitcoin has recently experienced a significant surge, surpassing the $118,000 mark, driven by a surge in demand and a constrained supply. This upward momentum has sparked discussions about the possibility of an upcoming altcoin season, where alternative cryptocurrencies could experience substantial gains. Analysts are closely observing market trends, with a particular focus on Ethereum (ETH) and other altcoins, to determine if Bitcoin's surge will translate into broader gains across the cryptocurrency spectrum. Historically, Bitcoin tends to lead the market, with altcoins lagging until liquidity shifts favorably. This pattern suggests that while Bitcoin’s performance is impressive, the conditions for a full-fledged altcoin season may not yet be in place.

The 50-week simple moving average (SMA) stands at approximately $87,000, serving as a critical line for bullish sentiment. Over the past two years, any dips near the 20-week SMA have presented buying opportunities, reinforcing a bullish outlook while keeping the market structure intact. However, a genuine altcoin season requires a sustained decline in Bitcoin’s dominance, which means observing lower highs and lower lows in Bitcoin’s dominance metrics over a more extended period. Currently, the market has not demonstrated these necessary conditions. Notably, the ETH/BTC ratio is showing signs of promise, as it has established a higher low for the first time since January 2022. If Ethereum manages to close above 0.024 BTC this week, it could signal a significant breakout, a positive indicator for altcoins like Solana (SOL), which has already seen a 23% increase through automated trading strategies.

Liquidity trends are another critical factor to watch. The Global Liquidity Index is forming a higher low, and a break above previous highs from April and September 2024 could signal a shift in market conditions. Until then, the market may remain in a consolidation phase. The Federal Reserve is also making subtle moves that could impact liquidity. Recently, there was an $11 billion repo injection, coupled with a proposal to modify the Supplementary Leverage Ratio (SLR) for major banks. These measures, while not explicitly labeled as quantitative easing, suggest an effort to expand liquidity without directly cutting interest rates. Historically, such shifts in Fed policy tend to influence cryptocurrency markets even before the mainstream financial media catches up.

The upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on September 17 is poised to be a crucial date. Current projections indicate a 64% likelihood of an interest rate cut in the fourth quarter. Should repo operations expand and the Supplementary Leverage Ratio adjustments be implemented, it could create a more conducive environment for altcoins. To conclude, Bitcoin continues to perform well, and with Ethereum and Solana showing signs of recovery, the groundwork for an altcoin season appears to be forming. However, the full realization of this potential will require further confirmation and time.

Analysts have suggested that the market is approaching a critical window, which could be one of the last significant opportunities to start accumulating altcoins before a select few begin to outperform Bitcoin. Data indicates that Bitcoin’s supply is tightening rapidly. In the past month, buyers acquired around 19,300 BTC, while miners produced only 13,000 BTC. This supply-demand gap has helped drive Bitcoin higher, and a similar trend could soon support a rally in select altcoins.

Solana (SOL) is one of the notable altcoins to watch. Despite a recent 2% drop to $159, the long-term outlook for Solana remains strong. A quick move above $164 could cancel the bearish outlook and open the door for a possible bounce toward $170. Ethereum (ETH) is also expected to break out soon. With around 30% of all ETH locked, it could soon hit $4,000 and even reach $6,000–$7,000 this cycle. The analyst recommends starting to buy ETH slowly, especially if it drops near the $3,000 mark. Other altcoins to consider include Sui (SUI), which has been moving fast but is worth stacking gradually as long as it holds above $3.40. AVAX is approaching a big supply zone near $20.90, and if it drops to around $20, that could be a strong buy opportunity. NEAR showed a textbook V-shaped recovery, and if it pulls back to the $2.55 area, it might be a good chance to buy.