Bitcoin's price action last week witnessed a tug-of-war between bears and bulls, with bears initially dominating. The cryptocurrency briefly dipped below the significant $100,000 mark on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday. However, buyers consistently stepped in at these crucial moments, preventing a daily close below $100,000 and demonstrating strong support. A small rally over the weekend allowed Bitcoin to reclaim the $104,000 support level, closing at $104,700.

Looking ahead, key support and resistance levels will dictate Bitcoin's trajectory. The weekly 55 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $99,000 proved to be a robust support whenever the price breached $100,000 last week. Bulls actively defended this level, anticipating the even stronger $96,000 bull market support level. Going forward, investors will closely monitor whether the 55 EMA can sustain as support after the recent upward movement.

As bulls attempt further upward momentum, several resistance levels loom. The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at $109,400 is expected to present initial resistance. Beyond this, sellers (bears) will aim to hold the daily point of control at $111,000, a price level with the highest transaction volume. A more substantial challenge lies at $116,000, which acts as a "gatekeeper" for bears; a daily close above this level would signal a shift in market bias back toward bullish sentiment. The market structure would become decisively more bullish if the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement at $116,000 can be successfully converted into a support level.

Should Bitcoin reclaim $116,000 as support, bulls may encounter minor resistance around $129,000, marking the top of a broadening wedge pattern. While this level could cause a temporary pause, it is not anticipated to hold for long if approached with strong momentum.

The outlook for the current week is influenced by external factors, including rumors about the potential end of the US federal government shutdown. A resolution could boost broader markets, indirectly benefiting Bitcoin. For sustained upward movement, bulls will look for the 0.146 Fibonacci retracement at $102,900 to hold as support on the daily chart early this week. However, the daily chart may struggle to close above the $109,400 resistance. A loss of the critical $100,000 level this week would be significantly bearish, likely leading to a test of $96,000, with potential further drops to $93,000 and possibly $84,000.

Despite the notable strength displayed by bulls last week, the overall market mood remains bearish, primarily due to a large red weekly candle close. The long-term broadening wedge pattern, characterized by diverging upper and lower trend lines and expanding price volatility, is still intact. While this pattern offers a chance for prices to return to its upper trend line around $129,000, the current bias still favors bears, suggesting a higher probability of a downside break. The $116,000 level is paramount for bulls to re-establish as support to propel the price toward new highs.

The prolonged US government shutdown, while not initially overtly bearish, is now having a noticeable impact. A quick resolution could bolster the Nasdaq and create supportive conditions for Bitcoin to reclaim key resistance levels. Conversely, any major macro bearish events could potentially signal the end of Bitcoin's current bull market, underscoring the need for stable economic conditions to foster further upside.