The awards season is in full swing, with the 83rd Golden Globes and the Actor Awards (formerly the Screen Actors Guild Awards) offering a mix of expected outcomes and thrilling unpredictability. Both ceremonies serve as crucial temperature checks for the industry, balancing critical prestige with popular appeal and often foreshadowing the Academy Awards.

For the Golden Globes, the final winner forecast reflects a lineup that balances prestige and populism. In the Best Motion Picture (Drama) category, Chloé Zhao’s “Hamnet” is considered the frontrunner, though Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” presents a theoretical late-surge scenario, especially with its strong position to dominate the Cinematic and Box Office Achievement category and Original Score for Ludwig Göransson. Jessie Buckley, star of “Hamnet,” is expected to convert critical admiration into a televised victory for Best Actress (Drama), potentially kicking off her march toward Oscar night, fending off Renate Reinsve from “Sentimental Value.”

The Comedy or Musical race appears more straightforward, with Warner Bros.’ “One Battle After Another” widely expected to secure the top prize. Its director, Paul Thomas Anderson, is also poised for a directing win. This film fits the Globes’ historical preference for auteurist studio plays in this category, and a win at both the Globes and Oscars would place it in an exclusive club of comedy or musical champions like “Green Book” and “The Artist.” Acting races in this genre hold potential surprises; Ethan Hawke, recognized for his role in Richard Linklater’s “Blue Moon,” could upset favorites like Timothée Chalamet of “Marty Supreme” and Leonardo DiCaprio of “One Battle After Another” in Best Actor (Comedy or Musical). Rose Byrne is a safe bet for Best Actress (Comedy or Musical) for “If I Had Legs I’d Kick You,” likely edging out Cynthia Erivo for “Wicked: For Good” and Chase Infiniti for “One Battle After Another.” Ariana Grande also has a strong chance for Best Supporting Actress for “Wicked: For Good.” Stellan Skarsgård is favored for Best Supporting Actor for “Sentimental Value.”

The lead actor (drama) race promises a historic moment, with Wagner Moura of “The Secret Agent” favored to win, potentially becoming the first Brazilian man to take the category. In non-English language film, “It Was Just an Accident” is favored, though “The Secret Agent” also shows strong voter support. Netflix’s “KPop Demon Hunters” is expected to win for Animated Feature and Original Song for “Golden.” The screenplay category presents multiple historic possibilities: Paul Thomas Anderson could achieve a rare hat trick (directing, best picture, screenplay) if “One Battle After Another” prevails, a feat only achieved once before by Oliver Stone. Alternatively, Ryan Coogler could become the first Black winner in the screenplay category for “Sinners,” or Chloé Zhao alongside Maggie O’Farrell could become the first East Asian winners for “Hamnet.” The television categories also have clear favorites, with “The Pitt” (HBO Max) for Drama Series, “The Studio” (Apple TV) for Comedy Series, and “Adolescence” (Netflix) for Limited Series, among others.

Meanwhile, the Actor Awards nominations, announced by Janelle James and Connor Storrie, highlight a dominance of English-language movies in acting categories. Paul Thomas Anderson’s action epic “One Battle After Another” set a record with seven nominations, including cast ensemble, stunt ensemble, and five individual acting nods for Leonardo DiCaprio, Chase Infiniti, Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor. Warner Bros. led overall with 12 nominations. Close behind, Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” received five nominations, tying for the second-most in SAG history, including a surprise stunt ensemble nomination and individual nods for Michael B. Jordan, Miles Caton, and Wunmi Mosaku. Both films will compete in the coveted ensemble race against “Frankenstein,” “Hamnet,” and “Marty Supreme.” The dynamic between “One Battle After Another” and “Sinners” is being compared to the “La La Land” versus “Moonlight” race, where one film dominates numerically while the other carries a strong undercurrent of passion.

The Actor Awards acting races delivered notable surprises and omissions. Wagner Moura, despite critical acclaim for “The Secret Agent,” missed a nomination in Best Actor, emblematic of a broader shutout for non-English-language films. “Sentimental Value” also received no acting nominations, including for Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, highlighting SAG’s uneven relationship with non-English performances. However, Jessie Buckley (“Hamnet”) and Rose Byrne (“If I Had Legs I’d Kick You”) secured nominations and are strong contenders, aligning with their Golden Globe predictions. Kate Hudson received her first individual SAG nomination for “Song Sung Blue,” and Emma Stone for “Bugonia.” In supporting roles, Miles Caton earned a well-deserved nomination for “Sinners,” joining Benicio Del Toro, Sean Penn, Paul Mescal, and Jacob Elordi. Wunmi Mosaku (also for “Sinners”) received a timely boost in supporting actress, alongside Odessa A’zion (“Marty Supreme”), Ariana Grande (“Wicked: For Good”), Amy Madigan (“Weapons”), and Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”).

On the television front, Apple’s “The Studio” led the Actor Awards landscape with five nominations, including cast ensemble and acting bids for Seth Rogen, Ike Barinholtz, Kathryn Hahn, and Catherine O’Hara. Netflix led all networks with 12 overall nominations, notably dominating the lead actor (limited) category. However, popular shows like “Stranger Things” and “Andor” were shut out, while “Landman” and “The Diplomat” were recognized. Notable individual acting omissions included the cast of FX’s “The Bear” (despite an ensemble nod), Adam Scott and Tramell Tillman for “Severance,” and lead actresses Kathy Bates, Quinta Brunson, and Kristen Bell. The 32nd annual Actor Awards ceremony, produced by SAG-AFTRA, will stream live on Netflix on March 1, 2026, following a voting period from January 14 to February 27.

The Actor Awards are considered a key bellwether for the Oscars, with a high overlap rate between its ensemble nominations and Best Picture Oscar nominations (76% since 2009), and an 80% match rate for film acting nominees. This predictive strength underscores their value in the competitive journey towards Academy Award recognition, even as both the Globes and Actor Awards continue to deliver surprises.