Barely three weeks into the electioneering in the state, a poignant question is being asked: Can ‘vagabond’ political forces determine the outcome of the gubernatorial ballot the same way they did in the recent Edo State showdown?

Rising from their meeting in Uyo, where the Akwa Ibom State governor, Pastor Umo Eno, was accepted into the Progressive Governors’ Forum (PGF) after his defection from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), the Anambra contest received good mention.

Cross River State’s chief executive, Senator Bassey Otu, declared: “We shall carry out President Tinubu’s directives to the full in Anambra State.” The Cross River governor was echoing President Tinubu’s charge to the leadership caucuses of the All Progressives Congress (APC) to “go get me Anambra State.”

President Tinubu had, while receiving the state’s flag bearers of APC-Prince Nicholas Chukwujekwu Ukachukwu and Senator Uche Lillian Ekwunife, at the Presidential Villa, noted that “(although) Governor (Chukwuma) Soludo is my friend, I want my party to win.”

Also, on May 8, when President Tinubu paid a working visit to Anambra, Governor Soludo stated that the progressives would work together in 2027 to deliver the President’s candidacy. Soludo noted that his friendly working relationship with the President has continued to attract federal presence to the state.

Last Friday, a prominent proponent of the Coalition of opposition political actors in the country, who was coupled to stop President Tinubu from harvesting a second term, Mr Peter Obi, was in Onitsha at the flag-off campaigns of the Labour Party (LP) candidate, Dr George Muoghalu.

As radio and television stations in the state announced the Friday, June 11 date for the event, the name of Obi was profusely mentioned as the chief guest of honour. And, given Obi’s prominent position as one of the main promoters of the coalition, many people started arguing whether the former governor would attend the event or vote with his legs.

Muoghalu, the immediate past Managing Director of Nigeria Inland Waterways Authority (NIWA), had told reporters in Abuja back in June that he planned to release his manifesto at a rally on July 11. But, the popular perception of Awka, the state capital, was that the LP candidate programmed the event to diminish the growing voter interest in the ADC, which turned out to be the platform of choice of the Coalition of opposition politicians.

Watchers of the ongoing electoral competition for attention in Anambra State would recall that shortly before the Labour Party’s (LP) governorship primary on June 5, Mr John Chuma Nwosu (JCN), who is believed to be an ally of the LP presidential candidate, resigned his membership and moved over to the African Democratic Congress (ADC).

And, prior to that sudden switch, the two major contenders on the LP platform, Muoghalu and JCN, were charged by their common friends and kins in Nnewi, where they hail from, to hold a heart-to-heart talk. The intervention, it was gathered, was for them to see how they can harmonise their aspiration and ensure that they do not split the votes from their common stronghold.

However, while Muoghalu’s supporters rejoiced at JCN’s decision to quit the party, Nwosu, who is the Chief Executive Officer of Jetlinks Limited, disclosed that his decision to leave LP was not only on account of the leadership dispute in the national headquarters of the party, but also the impunity that surrounded the primary.

He argued that it was rascally and unruly for LP to go ahead with the primary shortly after the Supreme Court ruled on the appeal filed by Senator Nenadi Usman-led National Caretaker Committee of the party against the Julius Abure-led faction.

While the two camps continue to rationalise the LP primary, Mr Obianyo, who emerged the ADC gubernatorial standard bearer, stepped down for JCN, claiming that the new entrant had all it takes to win the main election and deliver good governance in Anambra State.

To heighten the suspense, penultimate week, the Coalition group, where Peter Obi is also one of the prime movers, adopted ADC as the consensus platform for the 2027 general election. Faced by this new development, both LP and ADC began to be looked at as twin brothers of the same father. Interestingly, a new twist emerged with each ‘son’ claiming to be the heir, including the one born outside wedlock.

It was perhaps in a bid to clear the ambiguity about his standing with the political leader of the Obidient Movement and former governor of the state, Mr Peter Obi, that Muoghalu and his handlers decided to invite the LP’s 2023 presidential candidate to the kick-off of his governorship campaign.

Speaking during the campaign flag-off, Obi affirmed his membership of the Coalition, stressing that he remains a member of the Labour Party. Careful not to run afoul of party loyalty, Obi declared his support for the LP gubernatorial contender, even as he noted that the ADC remains the collective platform for all those involved in the political collaboration to rescue Nigeria.

The rally, which was held at the capacity field of the Anglican Church, Onitsha, attracted LP’s heavyweights from Nenadi Usman’s NCC, including Senators Victor Umeh and Tony Okechukwu Nwoye and the Deputy national chairman of LP, Chief Chem Ojukwu and national coordinator of the Obidient Movement, Dr Yunusa Tanko.

Other LP chieftains at the rally were members of the state House of Assembly, George Ozodinobi (Anaocha/Njikoka/Dunukofia); Lillian Orogbu (Awka North/South); Uchenna Okonkwo (Idemmili North/South and Godwin Idu (Onitsha North/South.

While endorsing the joint governorship ticket of Muoghalu and Prof Vero Ifeoma Okaro, the LP’s former presidential standard bearer told the crowd that, so far as the 2027 presidential contest is concerned, he would run, not as a running mate but as a flagbearer. He said he was supporting the party’s choice of Muoghalu/Okaro, stressing that the ADC is the party for the future.

“We are all in the Labour Party for now, not yet for a party that is still in the making and belongs to the future. But we are involved in the coalition,” Obi stated, even as he enjoined Muoghalu to run a compassionate administration when he won the gubernatorial poll.

Hinting at the intrigues within the Coalition over the choice of presidential candidate along the lines of zoning, Tanko declared that Mr Obi remains outstanding as a credible candidate with capacity, competence, character and credibility, stressing that giving him the presidential ticket would put ADC on the feasible path of building a new Nigeria.

Muoghalu had assured the gathering that he would eschew the crude tactics adopted by Governor Chukwuma Soludo in the fight against insecurity in the street, pointing out that, assisted by a capable woman, he would pursue an inclusive administration.

But, in a meeting with journalists in the state, the ADC governorship contender, John Nwosu, said he remains the candidate to beat, stressing that although he may not be a professor, he definitely is not stupid.

Noting that Anambra people have already resolved that only a wealth creator who has grown his private business would be their choice in November, maintaining that “good leaders must be good listeners…I’m not a professor, but I have common sense.”

He stated that while some people in the coalition wanted a fresh political party to be registered for the group, ADC was chosen because it “has been a long-established and nationally recognised party that has never been deregistered.”

“ADC is a party in good standing; it has always fielded credible candidates at the national and state levels,” Nwosu declared, assuring that the party would pick a consensus presidential candidate.

But, while the two aspirants for the Obidient Movement’s support continue to advance their ideas, the incumbent, Prof Chukwuma Soludo, and his party, the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) and its federal ruling counterpart, APC, are engaged in some sort of shadowboxing over which enjoys the confidence of the Presidency.

Sources disclosed that the APGA leaders reached a bargain with the Presidency to the extent that they are willing to forgo the Senatorial position for federal support in the governorship election.

It was gathered that the two frontline contenders for the APGA ticket for the Anambra South Senatorial poll, Ebuka Onunkwo and Dr Okey Chidolue, have been waiting for the party’s primaries, even as party faithful wonder why it should take the party forever to choose its Senatorial flag bearer.

The Anambra South Senatorial seat in the Senate became vacant after the last occupant, Senator Ifeanyi Patrick Ubah, kicked the bucket in a London Hospital. But, no sooner than the Senate declared the seat vacant and the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) announced the date for a bye-election that speculations became rife that Sir Azuka Okwuosa, who contested the governorship in 2021, have been assured of the Senatorial seat to pave the way for APGA could be rewarded with support during the governorship poll.

But a source within the APC denied any such agreement with APGA, arguing that the incumbent party knows that the seat belongs to APC, adding that any attempt to trade for the Senatorial position that does not involve a candidate of the party sounds unfounded.

State Assistant Secretary of APC, Engineer Sam Osita Oraegbunam, said it was evident to all in the state that APGA has become desperate and was trying its hand on every available straw to remain afloat. “After 24 years in office, Anambra people have decided to look beyond APGA in their search for leaders and representatives,” he declared.

But the APGA Senatorial aspirant, Dr Chidolue, said he was not distracted by small talk from opposition quarters, stressing that he is convinced that he was destined to represent Anambra South in the 10th Senate.

“My Legislative Agenda commands the consensus buy-in of critical stakeholders, and they have assured me that I am the man to step into the big shoes left by our dear former Senator, Ifeanyi Ubah. My desire to fight insecurity through the Locally Integrated Tracking System (LITS) has been hailed as a game changer.

“By June 21, APGA delegates will settle for a candidate who would complement what our dear governor is doing in using a bottom-up approach to development and governance. Anambra State needs an APGA Senator to expand the Solution initiative for the state,” he asserted.

Although ADC may bring fresh input to the calculation, it is possible that the Senatorial by-election would give a pointer as to how the November 8 governorship will shape up.