A Senior Market Analyst at FXTM, Lukman Otunuga, said the June consumer price index (CPI) due for release today is expected to show significant signs of cooling in prices, with headline inflation expected to ease to 21.4 per cent.

According to him, the slowing inflation could offer some relief to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), which hiked interest rates aggressively throughout last year.

He said inflation is expected to have eased to 21.4 per cent year-on-year from 23 per cent in May, marking the fourth consecutive month of decline.

However, the slowdown is largely a technical adjustment aided by the recent gains in the naira amid higher non-oil exports and a weaker dollar, he said.

He said the CBN would likely keep rates unchanged at 27.5 per cent when the Monetary Policy Committee (MPR) meets later in the month.

According to him, one key challenge for the country is how to re-tweak its budget for lower oil prices. The budget was based on oil production at two million barrels and oil prices of $75.

He said Brent is trading around $70 while the country produced 1.544m b/d of crude in May, according to OPEC.

“Nigeria is hoping to raise production to 1.9m b/d by the end of 2025. But its impact on the economy may be muted if oversupply and tepid demand keep oil prices subdued. Brent is up four per cent this month but still over six per cent down since the start of 2025,” he said.

He noted that a flurry of high-risk events may pump global financial markets with fresh volatility still ahead.

According to him, top-tier data, including the U.S. inflation, the unofficial start of earnings season, and U.S. Congress ‘Crypto Week’, among other themes, could spell fresh opportunities.

He said the uncertainty over global trade would add to the mix after President Donald Trump threatened 35 per cent tariffs on the European Union and Mexico last week.