As the war in Ukraine grinds through another devastating summer, it’s becoming increasingly clear that President Donald Trump’s attempts to broker peace with Russian President Vladimir Putin have fallen flat.

According to former U.S. Ambassador to NATO Kurt Volker, Trump has offered Putin a series of political and economic incentives: lifting sanctions, restoring Russia to the G8 and normalizing relations with the West. But Putin, in Volker’s own words, is “giving him the middle finger.”

Instead of responding to those overtures with diplomacy, Putin has escalated his campaign — launching some of the most intense aerial attacks of the war. In the first week of July, Russia fired more than 700 drones and missiles at Ukrainian cities in a single 24-hour period, according to Ukraine’s air force. That includes a record-setting barrage aimed at Kyiv on July 4, coming just hours after a reported Trump-Putin phone call.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Thursday that Russia has lost more than 100,000 troops since the beginning of 2025. But Moscow’s strategy appears unchanged. This points to a long-term commitment from Putin to forcibly subjugate Ukraine, regardless of the cost in lives or matériel.

This hard-line approach starkly contrasts with Trump’s more transactional style of diplomacy.

Sources close to the president said he has grown frustrated by Putin’s unwillingness to engage. Trump has toggled between support and restraint — freezing and unfreezing weapons shipments to Ukraine, making public criticisms of Putin, and promising more U.S. air defense systems. But the policy inconsistency may be undermining any leverage Washington once had.

At the same time, Ukrainian forces are holding firm. Ukraine’s military reports thousands of artillery and counter-battery operations just in the past month. Domestic drone production has surged. Air defenses, while stretched thin, continue to blunt many of Russia’s long-range assaults.

Still, the pressure is mounting. Civilian infrastructure has been ravaged, energy systems strained and morale tested by Russia’s use of “double-tap” strikes — hitting targets a second time to kill first responders. The goal appears to be psychological warfare as much as battlefield gain.

Putin’s latest escalations suggest he views the war not as a conflict to be negotiated, but as a historic mission to restore Russia’s imperial reign. Trump’s outreach — while dramatic — has so far failed to account for that fundamental reality.

In this high-stakes standoff, Ukraine remains the battleground — not just of territorial control, but of global credibility. The West, and the U.S. in particular, will need to confront the hard truth that Putin may not be swayed by traditional diplomacy or incentives. His campaign is ideological, not economic — and it shows no sign of slowing down.

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