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Analysis of the Ongoing Israel-Iran-US Conflict

Published 7 hours ago4 minute read
Analysis of the Ongoing Israel-Iran-US Conflict

The protracted animosity between Israel and the Islamic Republic of Iran, exacerbated by Iran's perception of Israel as an unwanted presence in the Middle East and its anti-semitic ideological national policy, culminated in a significant military confrontation. With Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, declaring Israel a "cancerous tumor" that must be eradicated, tensions escalated, leading to a conflict that sent reverberations across the globe. Despite the United States' preference for diplomacy, Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu favored a military solution, especially following the events of October 7, which he viewed as a trigger to comprehensively address the Iranian threat.

The conflict commenced with an ambitious strategic masterstroke by Israel, codenamed "Operation Rising Lion." This initiative first targeted Hezbollah, Iran's strongest proxy, by systematically dismantling its hierarchy through phone bombings, targeted assassinations, and sustained bombardments across Lebanon. With proxies neutralized, Israel launched a daring attack on June 13, sending over 200 bombers into Iran. This lightning strike, coordinated by Israeli agents, hit Iranian nuclear facilities, military establishments, intelligence outposts, and eliminated key figures of the Iranian High Command, including the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces and the Head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard. Two nuclear sites and six airports were hit across Tehran and other major cities, causing disarray within Iran's command structure. Following the initial Israeli strikes, Iran retaliated by launching a barrage of missiles at Israeli cities, including Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.

The United States, initially denying involvement but aware of the impending action, soon deployed military assets to Europe and the Middle East. President Donald Trump, despite earlier vows of being a peacemaker, had issued a 60-day ultimatum to Iran regarding its nuclear program. By June 22, 2025, the US intervened directly in an operation codenamed 'Midnight Hammer,' with the United States Air Force and Navy pounding three Iranian nuclear facilities with Massive Ordnance Penetrator ('bunker-busters') and Tomahawk missiles. This intervention occurred amidst warnings from UN Secretary-General António Guterres about the conflict's unpredictability and potential for global catastrophe, highlighting the smoldering dangers of Trump's meddlesomeness.

Last Monday, June 23, President Trump announced a ceasefire between the antagonists, a decision that left many perplexed yet relieved. This ceasefire, likened to the one during the 1973 Yom Kippur War, was largely driven by Israel's struggle to achieve its objectives of knocking out Iranian nuclear sites and effecting regime change under "Operation Rising Lion." Intelligence reports indicated that Israel was fast depleting its stock of 'Iron Dome' interceptors and straining under unprecedented destruction to its cities and infrastructure from Iranian missile strikes. The possibility of Israel resorting to nuclear weapons, as it threatened during the Yom Kippur War, loomed large. The American intervention was therefore likely intended to "save" Israel from further pummeling and prevent a nuclear escalation.

However, questions quickly arose regarding the true success of the strikes and the nature of the ceasefire, which appeared more like a strategic withdrawal for the US and Israel. Despite claims of obliteration, intelligence assessments confirmed that substantial parts of Iran’s nuclear facilities had survived, and the hoped-for popular uprising against the Mullah theocracy had not materialized. Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, defiantly declared that little damage had been done, and the IAEA head, Rafael Grossi, disclosed Iran's continued capability to enrich uranium. Satellite imagery also showed ongoing construction at the Fordow nuclear facility. Iran, striking a defiant and triumphant mode, decided to quit the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), asserting a moral, psychological, and strategic victory over both the Americans and Israelis. This situation indicates that the Americans and Israelis may need to recalibrate their tactics and might return to strike at Iran with more overwhelming force to "finish the job" if negotiations fail.

The Iran-Israel war, set against a backdrop of global instability with ongoing conflicts in Ukraine, tensions in Kashmir, and sabre-rattling by North Korea and China in the Pacific, underscores the urgent need for peace. The conflict offers instructive lessons, particularly for countries like Nigeria. Iran, despite laboring under comprehensive international sanctions since 1979, managed to build first-class infrastructure, develop refineries and oil infrastructure, exponentially increase its power and energy, and establish cutting-edge military-industrial complexes. It has achieved global recognition among the top five in propulsion and rocket technology, cyber, AI, and space science, enabling it to confidently face two nuclear powers. This demonstrates the power of self-reliance, leveraging internal talents and resources, and the will to achieve national development. The path forward for Iran and Israel must involve dialogue and painstaking efforts towards mutually agreeable accords and concessions, as military solutions have proven inconclusive and risky, with the potential for escalating into a global catastrophe.

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