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Alignment Issues: The Hurricane Watch for July 15th

Published 20 hours ago3 minute read

A tropical disturbance crossing Florida may become a tropical depression or tropical storm between tomorrow and Friday as it heads towards the central Gulf Coast. Another 1-3” of rain is expected in Florida (higher locally in Central Florida), with serious flood risks later this week in Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

: It’s Tuesday, July 15th… day 45 of the 2025 hurricane season, 138 days still to go. By total storm energy, the season is 4.9%, 11.8%, and 8.4% complete for the Atlantic, continental U.S., and Florida, respectively.

: None.

A weak area of low pressure is just east of Florida’s northeast coast this morning, spreading persistent and heavy showers and storms across east-central Florida. This disturbance, also known as , has a per the NHC as it moves along the northern Gulf Coast.

Visible satellite imagery of 93L through Tuesday morning, with low (red) and mid (blue) circulation annotated. (College of Dupage).

Invest 93L is struggling against about 20 knots of vertical wind shear from the north-northeast, which prevented the disturbance from becoming a tropical depression before reaching Florida. As seen on visible satellite imagery above, the surface circulation (red) is located well north of the deep convection and mid-level circulation (blue) this morning. Since the disturbance has not developed a new surface center underneath the stronger storms, 93L’s low-level circulation will likely move west over north-central Florida for the next day or so, emerging into Apalachee Bay early tomorrow then scraping west along the northern Gulf Coast through early Friday. At that point, 93L will probably slow down and bend north as steering currents weaken.

With wind shear dropping to ~10 knots tomorrow and Thursday, 93L still has decent odds of better aligning its circulations and briefly becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm before moving back over the north-central Gulf Coast— probably better than a 50/50 chance. However, this is yet another instance in which a name or number is immaterial to impacts, which will again be tied to rainfall. Following on yesterday’s flash flooding in Plant City, ongoing rain over east-central Florida has triggered a Flash Flood Warning for the area in red below (including Daytona Beach), and a Flood Watch is in effect through the evening for all of Central Florida.

In general, Florida will likely see another 1-3” with local totals to 6” or more over the next 5 days, with rain chances staying elevated through Friday, even after 93L has moved well west of the state. The greatest threat of more widespread flooding likely comes between Thursday and Saturday as 93L slows down and turns north in the ballpark of southern Louisiana or southern Mississippi; widespread totals of 4-8” there with locally higher amounts are a good bet.

That rainfall, in turn, is leading to rising chances of flash flooding along the central Gulf Coast later this week and into the weekend. Exactly where within the yellow and red areas of higher risk on the NWS’ Excessive Rainfall Outlooks for the next 5 days shown above are hardest hit remains to be seen, and is subject to how and where 93L organizes further. But overall, the disturbance is looking like a threat to cause yet another impactful flooding event in a summer already chock-full of them, this time potentially focused on flood-prone Louisiana and Mississippi. Stay tuned.

No other disturbances of note in the Caribbean or Atlantic as conditions remain broadly hostile to development for at least another week.

Weekly column early tomorrow afternoon.

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