Africa's Sahel: New Frontline in Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

Ukraine has pledged to counter Russia wherever possible, extending its efforts even to the Sahelian desert, amidst mounting evidence that Kyiv is supporting Tuareg separatists engaged in conflict with Mali’s army and its Russian allies. This development has led Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso – all military-led juntas that have distanced themselves from former colonial power France and aligned with Russia – to sever diplomatic relations with Ukraine. These nations accuse Ukraine of supplying weapons to the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA), a predominantly Tuareg armed separatist group with loose ties to Al-Qaeda's Sahel branch, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM).

Malian Foreign Minister Abdoulaye Diop publicly alleged at the United Nations in September that Ukraine is providing "clear and open support to terrorist groups and other mafia-like groups to undermine our country's territorial integrity" in Africa and the Sahel. Similarly, Niger's Prime Minister Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine specifically implicated France and Ukraine, accusing them of directing "proxies" along his country's northeastern borders to launch attacks on military positions and oil facilities. Ukraine's foreign ministry did not offer an immediate response to these allegations when contacted by AFP.

The accusations gained further traction following posts on X by Kyrylo Budanov, who served as Ukraine's intelligence chief before becoming President Volodymyr Zelensky's chief of staff in January. Budanov hinted at the presence of Ukrainian agents in Africa's Sahel region, writing on September 7: "From Russia to Africa... the Main Intelligence Directorate protects Ukrainian interests across the globe by all means... in the scorching sands of deserts and the freezing snows of Antarctica." His post included a blurred photograph of four white men alongside armed, turbaned men in pickup trucks in a desert setting. Five days later, a CNN report corroborated these claims, stating that Ukrainian military intelligence officers had confirmed providing training and support to FLA drone operators in the Sahel.

While armed groups are increasingly adopting low-cost, remotely piloted technologies for reconnaissance and strikes, tactics potentially inspired by the conflict in Ukraine, the precise extent of Ukrainian involvement in sub-Saharan Africa remains a point of contention. A source within the FLA acknowledged that Malian separatists "maintain contact with the Ukrainians" but emphasized that "All the fighting over the past few months has been carried out by the FLA and JNIM." This source denied any logistical, material, or intelligence support from Kyiv, dismissing Budanov's photos as "just Ukrainian propaganda." However, the source admitted that Kyiv had provided some instruction. In 2023, "three or four Ukrainians" reportedly traveled to northern Mali to train FLA fighters, and several combatants underwent "an intensive 30-day course in Ukraine on the use of FPV (first-person view) drones." A second FLA source confirmed that the training course in northern Mali "took place near the Mauritanian border" and suggested Budanov's photos were "either from that time or were taken in Syria."

A diplomat stationed in the region, speaking anonymously, asserted a "definite presence" of Ukrainians in northern Mali, where they "move about and collaborate with Tuareg rebels." The diplomat identified the Mauritanian border as the primary crossing point for exchanges between the Ukrainians and the FLA, and claimed that the drones utilized by the separatists originated from Ukraine. This connection is underscored by Kyiv's decision to open an embassy in Nouakchott, Mauritania, in 2024, which the diplomat suggested was "no coincidence" given Mauritania's role as a "rear base for FLA leaders." The diplomat further explained that the FLA systematically denies or downplays reports of Ukrainian assistance to avoid creating complications for Mauritanian authorities.

Additional evidence emerged in November from a study by the US think tank Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, which indicated that Kyiv had been supplying drones to the separatists since early 2024. In July of the same year, Ukrainian military intelligence official Andriy Yusov hinted that Kyiv had provided intelligence to FLA and JNIM fighters, which preceded an attack in northern Mali that resulted in the deaths of dozens of Russian mercenaries and Malian soldiers. These actions align with Ukraine's broader strategy to enhance its influence across Africa, a continent where Russia maintains a significant presence. Ukraine has opened several embassies in Africa in recent years, laid out its first comprehensive strategy for extending its reach in March, and in August, President Zelensky instructed his ambassadors to prioritize certain African regions, including the Sahel.