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AFL 2025: The biggest lesson the St Kilda Saints can learn in their pursuit of Tom De Koning from the Carlton Blues, and why the Sydney Swans and Brodie Grundy hold the key; Melbourne Demons and captain Max Gawn

Published 4 days ago5 minute read
per year over seven years. As a restricted free agent Carlton have the right to look at the contract offer but do not have the salary cap space or remote intention of going near matching it.

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The Saints are apparently willing to overlook De Koning’s form this year in persisting with the offer. Currently, De Koning is not even Carlton’s first-choice ruck and has been so anonymous as a forward his own fans gave him Bronx cheers on Thursday night. Not that this should be a measure of performance, but three marks and one last-quarter goal when the game was dead did not suggest the sort of presence they were looking for to complement Charlie Curnow. Last week he was similarly unnoticed, other than by the Collingwood cheer squad who enjoyed singing When the Saints Go Marching In to him when he was in the goal square.

St Kilda are plainly aware that they may have unintentionally played a role in De Koning’s form drop, as the player appears to labour under the pressure of his next career choice.

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For the Saints, the question remains the same as when they began their pursuit of him: how is it going to work if and when we do get him? We have seen what happened with Gawn and Grundy – are we going to get that?

One hope would be that “TDK” arriving will give them back the sort of chemistry they had when Paddy Ryder was in tandem with Rowan Marshall.

But Ryder was a better forward than either TDK or Marshall and at a different career stage.

Marshall will almost certainly want to leave. And he should. He is contracted for next year, but St Kilda should be open to the move, and when it comes to his next destination, Geelong are an obvious option.

Were he to leave, there would be a logic to it for the Saints – you bring in a younger ruck as a free agent so, aside from De Koning’s mega contract, you are not giving up a draft pick. You trade Marshall out, and so you bring in a draft pick from that trade. Ideally, you would bring in a future draft pick and not one in this weak draft, diluted by the volume of academy and father-son selections.

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It is unknown if this is the grand plan, or if the Saints intend to make it work with Marshall and De Koning in the one team, but there is more logic in trading Marshall out and getting the draft pick in and reducing the amount of the salary cap that is tied up in ruckmen.

The contract offer for De Koning is massively over the odds. Removing Marshall’s contract would obviously reduce the amount St Kilda would have committed to two players in what most clubs say is the one area of the ground you do not overpay in.

Four list managers from other clubs, who declined to comment on the record, valued De Koning at no more than $1m a year. One figured him to be an $800,000-per-year player, another at $900,000 to $1m, while the other two thought him a $1m-a-year man.

The difference between St Kilda and most clubs in this market is the Saints struggle to land players and so have to pay overs to do so.

Most figure that is the top price you would go to for a ruck who is not Gawn nor Luke Jackson.

“To pay that, they have to be unbelievable – [with] hitouts to advantage, [and] contested marks, or you have to have the ability to get back in defence and push forward to kick goals, like a Luke Jackson,” one list manager said.

“De Koning is neither of those things – he is not dominating as a ruck or as a forward.

Grundy (pictured here with Isaac Heeney) is playing a key role for the Swans.

Grundy (pictured here with Isaac Heeney) is playing a key role for the Swans.Credit: AFL Photos

“It looks like, at the moment, mentally, it [the big contract offer and probable move] has got to him, and he is playing well below his ability, so don’t judge him now on his form.”

The difference between St Kilda and most clubs in this market is the Saints struggle to land players and so have to pay overs to do so.

“They have to get the ball rolling, and getting in a player like De Koning helps reframe them. They also have front-ended other contracts and currently their salary cap for next year has a huge amount of space,” the list manager explained.

A club source, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said the Saints would be on par with Richmond for cap space.

De Koning is not as bad as he was against the Lions on Thursday night or against Collingwood last week because he is being played out of position. But what is his worth?

The player on the other side of the centre circle on Sunday offers the lesson.

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Origin:
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The Sydney Morning Herald
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