WPC Met Watch

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0441 (Issued at 845 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 )
MPD Selection

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Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0441 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 845 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 Areas affected...southern Oklahoma, north through northwest Texas Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 151244Z - 151644Z Summary...A couple of mature convective complexes were merging and crossing the Red River of Oklahoma/Texas this morning. Spots of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates should pose an isolated flash flood risk that should progressively become more isolated with time. Discussion...Recent mosaic imagery depicts a couple of merging convective complexes - one along the Red River from near Wichita Falls to near Durant, OK and another across far southwestern Oklahoma and the southeast Texas Panhandle near Childress. The complexes have gained forward speed through the morning, although several mergers have aided in 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates within both complexes. These rain rates are generally lower than FFG thresholds areawide, with the greatest potential for impactful flooding existing in/near urban and sensitive locales over the past couple of hours. These general trends should continue to translate southward into more of north/central Texas this morning. 20 kt southwesterly 850mb flow should continue to provide sufficient low-level shear for MCS maintenance while 1.5+ inch PW values and 1000-2000 J/kg of downstream MLCAPE supports robust, efficient updrafts. Areas of 1-1.5 inch/hr rain rates should continue with the complexes - again falling generally below FFG and limiting the spatial extent of flash flood potential to the most sensitive/urbanized spots. Cook ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT... ATTN...RFC...FWR...TUA...NWC... LAT...LON 35429905 34909730 34259641 32949623 32219664 31739753 31909948 33100044 34530058 35409998 

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Last Updated: 845 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025