Wisconsin and Purdue have been the best teams in the Big Ten this season. It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Wisconsin-Purdue prediction and pick.
Wisconsin is 19-5 entering this game, with big wins against Arizona, Pitt, Ohio State, USC, Nebraska, Northwestern, and Iowa. They have also lost recent games to Michigan, Marquette, Illinois, UCLA, and Maryland. John Tonje is the best player on the Badgers and can strengthen his case as one of the best players in the Big Ten in this game.
Purdue is 19-6 but lost to Michigan in their last game. They have notable wins against Alabama, Ole Miss, Maryland, Oregon, and Michigan. They also have losses to Marquette, Penn State, Texas A&M, Auburn, and Ohio State next to Michigan. Trey Kaufman-Renn is the best player on the Boilermakers, and they need him to outplay Tonje in this matchup.
Wisconsin: +5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: +190
Purdue: -5.5 (-110)
Moneyline: -235
Over: 147.5 (-110)
Under: 147.5 (-110)
Time: 1 pm ET/10 am PT
TV: CBS
Wisconsin's offense has been a top five in the Big Ten. They score 81 points per game, have a 46% field goal percentage, and a 36.5% three-point shooting percentage. Wisconsin is also 10th in adjusted offensive on KenPom, with a 123.9 rating.
Four Badgers average over double digits in scoring, proving how balanced this offense has been. Tonje is easily the best scorer on this roster, averaging 18.5 points per game, and is in the running for the best player in the Big Ten. The Badgers also average 14.9 assists per game, showcasing how well they move the ball. Four players average at least two assists, and Max Klesmit is the leader, averaging 2.9 per game.
The Badgers have the talent and coaching on offense to score on anyone, but this is a tough matchup against the Boilermakers. Purdue has one of the better defenses in the Big Ten and, at home, can slow down Wisconsin. Still, Tonje might be the best player on the court, and that might be enough.
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The Badgers' defense has been okay at best this season. They allow 69.9 points per game, 41.3% from the field, and 32.2% from behind the arc. They are also 35th in KenPom, with an adjusted defensive rating of 98.2.
The Badgers' frontcourt needs work on defense and the glass. Nolan Winter and Steven Crowl average at least five rebounds per game. Crowl is the team leader in rebounding and blocks, averaging 5.7 and 0.6 per game, respectively.
Regarding on-ball defense, Klesmit is the only player averaging over one steal, with one per game. The Badgers' defense has been solid this season, but this is a tough matchup against Purdue on the road, especially considering how well they are playing on offense. They need all hands on deck against the Boilermakers.
Despite losing Zach Edey, Purdue has not missed a beat on offense this season. They score 78.5 points per game, have a field goal percentage of 49.6%, and have a three-point percentage of 37.5%. KenPom loves this offense, too, ranking them seventh in adjusted offense and giving them a 123.9 rating.
Three Boilermakers players are averaging over double digits this season. Kauffman-Renn is the most consistent scorer, averaging 19 points per game, and is easily the spark for an offense that has been playing well most of the season. Then, Braden Smith is the assist leader, averaging 8.6 per game. The team is also a top-50 offense in ball movement, averaging 16.3 assists per game.
Kauffman-Renn is Purdue's biggest offensive key, but Fletcher Loyer and Smith have also been giant keys that make the Boilermakers move this season. Purdue should be able to score on Wisconsin at home, and the Badgers can only do so much in this matchup.
Purdue's defense has been among the best in the Big Ten. It allows 68.9 points per game, 43.9% from the field, and 30.4% from behind the arc. With a 97.1 rating, the defense is among the top 30 in KenPom.
The frontcourt has not been nearly as impressive this season due to Edey's absence. Kauffman-Renn has been the best rebounder, averaging 6.4 per game, and the entire team only averages 33.4 per game. Three players are tied for the team lead in blocks, averaging 0.3 per game.
Finally, Smith is the best perimeter defender for the Boilermakers, averaging 2.6 steals per game. This defense has had a solid year, but defending the Badgers in this matchup will be a handful.
This game comes down to a battle between Tonje and Kauffman-Renn. They are two of the best players in the Big Ten, and whoever gets the upper hand wins this game. I think that with the Boilermakers at home, Purdue does just enough, and they should win, cover, and bounce back from their loss against Michigan earlier in the week.
