It has been a fascinating offseason for the Memphis Grizzlies to date. Memphis perpetrated the summer's first blockbuster trade, shipping Desmond Bane to Orlando for Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Cole Anthony and four first-round picks. Then Memphis moved up on draft night to select Cedric Coward, a player with almost zero high-level college experience, at No. 11 overall. And now, Jaren Jackson Jr. is getting paid.

The 25-year-old forward has agreed to a new five-year, $240 million max contract extension, per ESPN's Shams Charania.

That is a crisp $48 million annual average value for Trip, and it's well deserved. He's a perennial All-Defense candidate who has made massive strides offensively, emerging as a legitimate fulcrum of self-creation and interior scoring for a Grizzlies team that desperately needs him on both ends. With Ja Morant's constant injury woes, Jackson has been the stabilizing force for Memphis, who still won 48 games in the West last season. An eighth-place finish and a first-round exit made this a somewhat forgettable campaign, but the Grizzlies are a perfectly solid team in the West.

Therein lies the issue, though: Perfectly solid in the West just isn't good enough anymore.

The Bane trade was perfectly logical in terms of pure value, but it's a massive step back in reality. KCP should shoot it better than he did in Orlando, but it's hard to overstate the gap between Bane last season and what Caldwell-Pope put on tape for the Magic last year. Bane was Memphis' best playmaker for long stretches when Morant got hurt; he's also a deadeye shooter and off-ball scorer, the sort that perfectly complements Morant's breakneck downhill creation.

Memphis took a step back in favor of long-term flexibility. As for Coward, he's an interesting pickup, but the 21-year-old is woefully unfamiliar with this level of competition. His length, shot-making and defensive effort all merit confidence in his long-term progression, but six games for a Power Five school (sorry, still counting the Pac-12 for this) hardly constitutes NBA readiness. Coward went from D-III to Eastern Washington to Wazzu, then got hurt six games into his senior campaign. He will need time. This was an investment in the future, not the present.

So that leaves Memphis with a solid supporting cast and two All-Stars in Jackson and Morant, the latter of whom hasn't actually been an All-Star since 2023. Morant also has not appeared in 60 or more games in a season since 2021. The durability concerns with Morant are pronounced. His production also curtailed last season, leading some to question his viability as a franchise cornerstone.

Jackson is far and away Memphis' best player. If the Grizzlies cling to postseason aspirations in 2025-26, it will almost certainly be because of Jackson's steadfast improvement as a two-way force. At the end of the day, though, Trip is not made to be the best player on a contender. That's just not his game. He's an elite, uber-rangy defender who can bomb 3s, attack closeouts and do fun things offensively. But he's not a lead creator. He doesn't rebound. There are flaws that hold Jackson back in certain matchups. On paper, he profiles much better as a second or third banana.

The Grizzlies won 48 games and were the No. 8 seed. With OKC returning virtually its entire roster, Houston adding Kevin Durant and Dorian Finney-Smith, Dallas adding Cooper Flagg and god knows what else might happen this summer, the West is not getting weaker. But the Grizzlies are. Unless Morant can finally string together 70-plus healthy games and reach his peak from a few years ago, the Grizzlies are going to lose more games and drift further into the Play-In sphere.

Further development from guys like Zach Edey and Coward is the swing factor in all of this, but right now, Memphis is trending in the wrong direction. This is a smart front office; they draft well and generally find value on the margins in free agency. But smart front offices also know when to pull the plug. Eventually, the Grizzlies are going to come to the realization that Morant and Jackson just cannot get them far enough in the West. And even on his supermassive contract, Jackson will have a ton of trade value — the sort of value that can kickstart a rebuild.

So, just prepare for the inevitable, Memphis fans.