We Think Ashok Leyland (NSE:ASHOKLEY) Is Taking Some Risk With Its Debt
David Iben put it well when he said, 'Volatility is not a risk we care about. What we care about is avoiding the permanent loss of capital.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. We note that (NSE:ASHOKLEY) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that as of March 2025 Ashok Leyland had ₹497.0b of debt, an increase on ₹405.7b, over one year. On the flip side, it has ₹119.3b in cash leading to net debt of about ₹377.7b.
Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Ashok Leyland had liabilities of ₹265.5b due within 12 months and liabilities of ₹393.2b due beyond that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of ₹119.3b as well as receivables valued at ₹167.9b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total ₹371.5b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit isn't so bad because Ashok Leyland is worth ₹689.5b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.
View our latest analysis for Ashok Leyland
In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
While Ashok Leyland's debt to EBITDA ratio (3.9) suggests that it uses some debt, its interest cover is very weak, at 2.2, suggesting high leverage. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. On a lighter note, we note that Ashok Leyland grew its EBIT by 25% in the last year. If it can maintain that kind of improvement, its debt load will begin to melt away like glaciers in a warming world. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Ashok Leyland's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. Over the last three years, Ashok Leyland saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
We'd go so far as to say Ashok Leyland's conversion of EBIT to free cash flow was disappointing. But on the bright side, its EBIT growth rate is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Looking at the balance sheet and taking into account all these factors, we do believe that debt is making Ashok Leyland stock a bit risky. Some people like that sort of risk, but we're mindful of the potential pitfalls, so we'd probably prefer it carry less debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted you should be aware of, and 1 of them makes us a bit uncomfortable.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.