It's time to continue our College Basketball odds series with a Wake Forest SMU prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Wake Forest SMU.
The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are in trouble, and they know it. When we previewed the Wake Forest-Stanford game not that long ago, we wrote that “SMU hasn't beaten any particularly good teams. Pitt is in huge trouble after the Virginia disaster. North Carolina has way too many losses without big wins to offset them. Wake Forest might actually be in the best position of those four ACC bubble teams, but even then, the Deacs aren't competing just with their conference rivals; they're competing against the national field. They are, at best, a 50-50 bubble team, and what hurts them is that they play in a conference which has underperformed this season. Wake Forest has already lost at home to Duke and on the road at Louisville. If you look at the schedule, Wake's only chances to grab really good wins in the coming weeks are at SMU and at Duke. If Wake goes 0-2 in those games, it will not be able to afford a loss to the Stanford Cardinal or other ACC teams which are lower in the conference standings.”
Guess what happened earlier this week? Yep. Wake Forest lost to an ACC team which is lower in the conference standings. The Demon Deacons, who led by 16 with over eight minutes left and were still up nine points with just under four minutes left, completely unraveled down the stretch and lost to Florida State at home. It's a Quad 3 loss for a team which simply could not afford to cough up that kind of a defeat on home hardwood. Wake Forest has significantly downgraded its bubble position and now has very little margin for error. This SMU game is very close to a must-win after the Florida State disaster. If Wake loses here, it will likely need to win at Duke in a few weeks to be on the good side of the bubble heading into the ACC Tournament.
Wake Forest: +7.5 (-102)
Moneyline: +235
SMU: -7.5 (-120)
Moneyline: -295
Over: 144.5 (-110)
Under: 144.5 (-110)
Time: 6 p.m. ET/3 p.m. PT
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TV: ACC Network
The odds opened up with SMU as a 5.5-point favorite. The public has bet this line up to 7.5 for SMU, a natural reaction not only to Wake Forest's Florida State loss, but to the larger reality that Wake Forest annually loses a really bad bubble game to put itself in trouble relative to the NCAA Tournament. This has happened before under coach Steve Forbes. However, you're now in a position where you can get Wake with two more points on your side! Given that this is a two-way bubble game — with SMU also on the bubble — both teams are going to treat it as an NCAA Tournament game in terms of meaning and intensity. Wake Forest is all-in on this game. The Deacs know their season is on the line. They might not win, but at plus-7.5, they look like a much more attractive selection than SMU does.
Wake Forest is not going to recover from that atrocious Florida State loss. The Demon Deacons wrecked their season and now have to make the long commute to Texas to play a fresh, rested SMU team which has been very good at home this season. The Mustangs have lost at home to Duke and Louisville — two of the three best teams in the ACC along with Clemson — but have otherwise been very strong and dependable on their home floor. SMU playing at home gives the Ponies the energy and enthusiasm needed to win this game big, not merely scrape by.
Wake Forest led by 16 late and then coughed up the game against Florida State. That makes us want to run away and hide from this game. Who knows how many abrupt plot twists and lead changes there will be? The lean is to Wake, but how can we trust Wake after seeing that ugly implosion versus FSU? Stay away from this one.
