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US Stock Futures Edge Down After S&P 500 Erases 2025 Losses: Strategist Sees Possible Bottom But Warns Against Overexuberance

Published 3 weeks ago3 minute read

A fund manager expects huge amounts of investment funds and the fear of missing out to bring new buyers, especially if progress continues on the tariff front and the inflation impact is less than feared.

Major U.S. stock futures changed little in Asian trading on Wednesday after the broader market rallied hard in the previous session. The market may need the next big thrust to continue the upward momentum.

As of 10:53 p.m. ET, the S&P 500 futures edged down 0.02%, the Nasdaq 100 futures were flat, the Dow futures slipped 0.01%, and the Russell 2000 futures declined 0.25%.

Crude oil futures pulled back in the overnight session after rallying close to the $64-a-barrel mark on Tuesday, while gold futures also retreated modestly.

The 10-year U.S. Treasury note yield slipped 2.6 basis points to 4.473% overnight after stopping just short of the 4.5% mark in the previous session.

Asian stocks were mostly lower early in the session.

Wednesday’s economic calendar mainly comprises speeches by Federal Reserve officials. Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak at 5:15 a.m. ET, and Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak at 9:10 a.m. ET.

San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is expected to publicly appear after the market closes at 5:40 p.m. ET.

The key earnings catalysts for the day include the quarterly reports from Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO), Tower Semi (TSEM), Boot Barn Holdings (BOOT), Jack In The Box (JACK), Lions Gate Entertainment (LGF), and Luminar Technologies (LAZR).

Techs led the gains on Tuesday, helping the S&P 500 Index turn positive for the year.  The broader gauge is now up 0.08% for the year, although trading off the Feb. 19 all-time high of 6,147.43.

The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rallied 1.61% but is still down for the year, while the Nasdaq 100, an index comprising the biggest 100 non-financial tech firms, has turned green for the year.

A sharp pullback by healthcare stocks, prompted by President Donald Trump’s executive order to slash prescription drug pricing and UnitedHealth’s (UNH) disappointing results, weighed down on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, which fell 0.64% for the session.

LPL Financial Chief Technical Strategist Adam Turnquist said in a note on Tuesday that the breakout of the S&P 500 Index above the closely watched 200-day moving average (DMA) provided additional evidence that a durable low was likely reached last month.

“Historically, crossovers above the 200-dma have yielded positive forward returns, although they track more toward average performance,” the strategist said.

LPL’s analysis showed that in the 12 months following a crossover above the 200-dma, the S&P 500 has posted an average gain of 8.6%, with 70% of occurrences producing positive results. 

That compares to an average price return for all rolling 12-month periods of around 9.3% since 1950, with 74% of periods generating positive returns.

He also noted that 12-month forward returns tend to improve if the S&P 500 is below its 200-DMA for a longer period. Most recently, the index was below the 200-DMA for 32 straight sessions.

However, fund manager Louis Navellier expects better times ahead. “With huge amounts of investment funds still on the sidelines, the fear of missing out should bring new buyers, especially if progress continues on the tariff front and the inflation impact is less than feared,” he said.

The Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF ended Tuesday’s session up 1.52% at $515.59, and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) added 0.66% before closing at $586.84. On the other hand, the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust (DIA) fell 0.64% to $421.51.

The iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) gained 0.37% to $208.63.

For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

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