As 2025 unfolds, elections in Singapore, Australia, and the Philippines have taken on significant importance due to global instability and the resurgence of Donald Trump's protectionist policies. These elections reflect the region's struggle for agency amidst economic transformation, security dilemmas, and political realignment. The outcomes will indicate the Asia-Pacific's willingness to back the US Indo-Pacific strategy and will help China recalibrate its approach.

Singapore: Generational Shift and Geopolitical Anxiety

Singapore's election, the first under Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, is critical as citizens grapple with rising living costs and regional economic vulnerability. The ruling People’s Action Party (PAP) must demonstrate its ability to deliver stability and earn the trust of a younger generation concerned with climate change, AI disruption, and digital rights. Singapore's key concerns include maintaining neutrality, protecting its role in global trade, and updating its social compact.

Australia: Inflation, Identity, and Pacific Relations

Australia's federal election pits Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s Labor Party against a Liberal-National Coalition amid cost-of-living frustrations. The economy faces turbulence due to Trump’s protectionism and China’s slower rebound, undermining exports. Albanese must balance national interests with re-engaging the Asia-Pacific, facing criticism for being perceived as too lenient on China and too reliant on the US. The AUKUS pact has strained relations with some Asean members. Domestically, Albanese addresses inflation while the opposition promises stronger borders and lower taxes.

The Philippines: Dynastic Tensions and Geopolitical Tugs

The Philippines' midterm elections serve as a referendum on President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr.’s administration, which is grappling with a credibility crisis. The rivalry between the Marcos and Duterte families adds complexity, with Vice President Sara Duterte positioning herself for the 2028 presidential race. Washington and Beijing are closely monitoring the situation as Manila's alignment with the US has alarmed China. Voters are primarily concerned with job insecurity, public health, and education.

Global Implications

These elections collectively reflect a region at a crossroads. They are crucial for the US in assessing which allies support its Indo-Pacific strategy and for China in recalibrating its diplomatic efforts. The outcomes will indicate Asean’s cohesion and the global South’s struggle for agency. These elections are a referendum on how the Indo-Pacific will navigate global disorder, influencing the evolution of democracy and governance under pressure.

The region must decide whether to navigate these challenges separately or chart a shared course through them, as the storms of market turmoil and geopolitical flux continue.