Former Kaduna Central Senator Shehu Sani has officially declared his interest in contesting the 2027 general elections, signalling a potential return to the Senate.

Speaking at his residence in Kaduna during his Eid-el-Fitr message, Sani said his candidacy would depend on prevailing political circumstances.

“Any politician contesting an election depends on the political equation that determines the position to vie for. If the conditions are right and the equations are favourable, I will offer myself to contest specifically for the Kaduna Central senatorial district,” he said.

His announcement has sparked discussions among political analysts and stakeholders in Kaduna, with many considering his return a significant development in the state’s political landscape. Known for his outspoken nature and advocacy for human rights, Sani is expected to be a strong contender, potentially reshaping political alignments in the state.

Is backing Uba Sani for re-election a strategy?

Despite his Senate ambition, Shehu Sani emphasised that his immediate priority is ensuring the re-election of Kaduna State governor Uba Sani.

“For now, our priority is to see that the incumbent governor, Uba Sani, is re-elected. We will work with all our might and strength to achieve this. We know there will be challenges and opposition, but we are well prepared for all forces,” he said.

His endorsement of Uba Sani is significant given their past rivalry. But some observers speculate that it might be a strategic move to secure the APC ticket, as Governor Sani has consolidated control of the party’s structure in Kaduna following the exit of former governor Nasir El-Rufai. El-Rufai played a key role in Shehu Sani’s failed attempt to return to the Senate in 2019.

Their reconciliation, analysts suggest, may be part of a broader APC strategy to solidify its hold on Kaduna ahead of the 2027 elections. Observers believe Shehu Sani’s support could bolster Uba Sani’s position, especially in areas where the opposition PDP has gained ground.

His remarks on peaceful coexistence despite reflecting his continued advocacy for human rights and justice, which has defined his political career also aligned with Governor Uba Sani’s efforts to foster peace in crisis-prone areas, particularly in Kaduna South, where the PDP has gained a stronghold.

His exit and return to APC

Shehu Sani left the APC in 2018 due to conflicts over party primaries. His fallout with then-Governor El-Rufai led to his replacement by Uba Sani for the Kaduna Central Senate seat. Alongside Senators Suleiman Hunkuyi and Danjuma La’ah, Sani opposed a $350 million loan secured by the state government, further straining his relationship with El-Rufai and the APC leadership. This rift prompted him to join the People’s Redemption Party (PRP), where he secured a senatorial ticket but lost to Uba Sani.

In 2021, he moved to the PDP and contested for the governorship ticket but lost in the primaries. However, on February 16, 2025, he rejoined the APC along with other defectors from the PDP and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).

Speaking on Channels Television, Shehu Sani said Governor Uba Sani played a key role in his return to the APC. He described himself as a founding member of the party in Kaduna and highlighted the reconciliation efforts that led to his comeback.

“A circumstance led to our mass exit from the APC in 2018, and that circumstance has changed. Now, we have a new governor who reached out to us, building bridges across the state. We also met and agreed that we should return to the party that we founded in Kaduna State,” he said.

Analysts see his return as a strategic move that strengthens the APC’s position in Kaduna. They believe his decision was influenced by the evolving political landscape and his need to remain relevant.

Usman Ahmed Usman, an APC chieftain from Kaduna South Local Government Area, expressed his happiness over Shehu Sani’s decision to return to the party.

When asked whether Sani’s return might cause friction among other aspirants for the Senate seat, Usman dismissed the concerns. “I don’t think there will be a problem,” he responded. “He has occupied that seat before, and the people will judge his performance during his tenure. If he is able to convince the delegates, they will support him.”

He further argued that Shehu Sani’s past experience gives him an advantage over newcomers. “Shehu Sani is from this local government area,” Usman pointed out.

According to him, for the APC to develop and remain a strong party, internal democracy must be upheld. “If the party truly wants to grow, it must ensure a fair contest where delegates are free to vote for the candidate of their choice,” he concluded.

Challenges to his aspiration

Despite his influence, Shehu Sani faces stiff competition for the Kaduna Central Senate seat. Several APC chieftains are eyeing the position, including former speaker and current lawmaker, Yusuf Ibrahim Zailani, and Aminu Zaria, a close associate of Governor Sani. Hamisu Abubakar Mai Rago, another confidant of the governor, was also reportedly interested in the seat but might have abandoned his ambition following a recent federal appointment.

However, the toughest challenge comes from incumbent Senator Usman Adamu (Mr LA) of the PDP, who enjoys significant grassroots support. His welfare-focused politics and strong connection with constituents make him a formidable opponent.

Despite internal opposition within the PDP due to disagreements with some party stakeholders, analysts still see him as the candidate to beat.

PDP’s strategy for 2027

Hon. Zubairu Shanuna, a PDP chieftain in Kaduna North LGA, believes the party can retain the Senate seat if it resolves internal conflicts and strategises effectively.

“Mr LA may find it difficult to return due to his misunderstanding with key stakeholders. If the PDP wants to remain relevant in the state, it must plan ahead of the 2027 election,” he said.

He also suggested that Shehu Sani may have federal backing, given his relationship with President Bola Tinubu, making the contest more challenging for the opposition.

Political analysts weigh in

Abubakar Ahmed, a political analyst, clarified that while Shehu Sani’s exit from APC was because of his fallout with El-Rufai, the former governor’s own recent exit from the party was due to his fallout with the APC leadership and the current governor, Uba Sani, rather than the senator’s return.

Ahmed said, “Fundamentally, in Nigeria, we have politicians whose personal aspirations often come before the public interest. His decision to return to APC could be motivated by a desire to align himself with the federal government and support both Governor Uba Sani and President Tinubu.”

Ahmed further noted that the strained relationship between El-Rufai and the incumbent governor has created an opportunity for figures like Shehu Sani to reassert their influence within the party. “It is no secret that there is a rift between El-Rufai and Uba Sani,” he continued. “Shehu Sani and others who suffered political setbacks during El-Rufai’s administration saw this as a chance to return to the party.”

According to him, it is not uncommon for politicians to return to their former parties, and Shehu Sani’s rejoining of APC will likely strengthen the party at both state and national levels. “No political party wants to lose prominent figures; Shehu Sani is not an ordinary politician. He has carved a niche for himself, and his return is a plus for the APC. His impact will become clearer as we approach the general elections,” he said.

Another Kaduna-based analyst, Ango Bally, described Shehu Sani as a major figure in northern politics and a crucial ally for both Tinubu and Uba Sani.

“It is believed that President Tinubu was behind the reconciliation between Uba Sani and Shehu Sani because they need strong support for the party and the governor,” he said.

“Shehu Sani is a voice in the North, not just Kaduna. He will likely receive federal backing to clinch the ticket, especially given his reconciliation with Uba Sani after the 2023 elections,” he added.

Despite this, Bally believes the welfarist politics of Mr LA could make the race difficult for Shehu Sani and the ruling APC. He emphasised that the APC faces significant challenges in Kaduna and across northern Nigeria, necessitating figures like Shehu Sani to bolster its influence.

The road ahead for Shehu Sani

Observers note that Shehu Sani’s Senate ambition is shaping up to be a major political battle, particularly as his longtime rival, Nasir El-Rufai, is now rallying support for the Social Democratic Party (SDP). El-Rufai has vowed to use the 2027 election to prove a point to Uba Sani and Shehu Sani, as well as the federal forces backing them. Thus, Shehu Sani’s return to the APC, his past conflicts, and relationships within the party will all influence his chances. With strong contenders in the APC, PDP, and the El-Rufai-backed SDP, his road to the Senate will depend on party dynamics, voter sentiment, and strategic alliances in the coming years.

As the 2027 elections approach, political observers will closely watch how Shehu Sani navigates Kaduna’s complex political terrain. Whether his return to the APC and support for Uba Sani will translate into electoral success remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain—his candidacy will be a major factor in shaping the political discourse in the state.