More than twenty years in the making, the Iranian nuclear weapons program may have finally hit a brick wall. The Iranian theocratic dictatorship, which declared hatred of Israel and the U.S. its ideological cornerstone and reason for existence, may not survive the successive blows Israel’s Operation Rising Lion is delivering. The implications for global energy and security in the Middle East will be historic.

The massive air war that Israel is currently conducting to prevent Iran from weaponizing its nuclear program is a watershed moment. Coordinated strikes by the Israeli Air Force (IAF) have so far eliminated top Iranian military and Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) leaders as well as nuclear scientists, targeted key sites for the Iranian nuclear program, and attacked Iranian strategic military facilities and command centers – for now, leaving Tehran hurt, but not at all ready to give up. U.S. policy will be key to how events develop.

At this very early stage in the conflict, the results of the Israeli operation have been impressive. In contrast, while the barrages of ballistic missiles that Iran has launched at Israeli cities in response have killed, wounded, and forced residents all over the country to repeatedly run into bomb shelters, their impact on Israel’s ability to fight has been minimal. Successes to date, however, cannot prevent the Iranian regime from rebuilding its assets and standing the nuclear program back up. Israel – calling out Tehran’s imminent acquisition of a nuclear weapon – launched Rising Lion at a time when previous IAF strikes damaged Iran’s air defenses. Additionally, Tehran’s proxy Hezbollah in Lebanon has been weakened, its proxy in Gaza, Hamas, is on the back foot, and its ally in Damascus, Bashar al-Assad, was ousted from power by a coalition of Islamist groups that are still in the process of standing up a new government in Damascus. U.S. logistical and political support is crucial to allowing Israel to significantly roll back or eliminate the Iranian nuclear program during this limited window of strategic opportunity.

Since the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement, Iran has had every opportunity to demonstrate peaceful intent and prove that it was not pursuing enrichment beyond what was necessary to run the Bushehr nuclear reactor. Instead, Tehran has done the opposite. It pursued its “Ring of Fire” strategy, boosted ballistic missile productionstrengthened its network of proxies from Assad’s Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Houthis in Yemen and – of course – Hamas in Gaza, and refused President Donald Trump’s reasonable offer to give up uranium enrichment. It sold Shahed drone factories to Russia for Moscow’s war against Ukraine and signed a massive investment agreement with China, becoming a prime oil supplier to Beijing.

These actions have been the source of disruption across the region. Iran’s Houthi proxies were responsible for the recent global shipping crisis in the Arabian Sea and the Red Sea.

Notably, all direct military action has been taken by Israel up to this point. Shortly after the operation began, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made America’s non-involvement clear, hoping to keep current U.S.-Iranian nuclear negotiations going. However, even prior to the Israeli move, statements concerning negotiations with the U.S. made by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, have been largely hostile; and Tehran’s response to censure by the UN’s International Atomic Energy Agency, for failing to comply with its nuclear non-proliferations obligations was to announce that it would activate a third nuclear enrichment facility. It remains to be seen whether Tehran will walk away from the negotiating table altogether, closing the door on compromise and prospects for a peaceful resolution. Eighty-six-year-olds are not famous for their mental flexibility.

Iran is threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping sea lane for Middle Eastern oil and liquid natural gas (LNG). Trump remains wary of effects the current conflict may have on world markets, especially when it comes to oil. He certainly does not want Tehran to impede oil exports. One-fifth of all global oil passes through the Strait, and closure could become a repeat of the Red Sea crisis, when Iranian Houthi proxies, trained and equipped by the IRGC, imperiled global shipping with significant economic consequences. Any disruption along the Strait could trigger a spike in oil prices that would reverberate through the global economy and lead to inflation in the U.S.

The current conflict is affecting Israel’s strategic energy infrastructure as well. Citing security concerns, the Israeli Energy Ministry ordered Chevron to temporarily shut down operations at the Leviathan Gas Field, the largest in the country. Energean Plc has also halted output from its Israeli assets in response to the strikes on Iran. These measures are likely in anticipation of a possible strike by Iran or Hezbollah against the field, an offshore site 130 km off the coast of Israel, which makes it harder to protect with Israel’s missile defense systems.

While other sources of energy, like the Tamar and the Karish gas fields remain operational and able to meet Israel’s domestic energy demand, the shutdown of Leviathan will have effects overseas. Egypt will be impacted the most significantly. It will be losing a critical source of gas amidst peak summer demand and a domestic shortfall. European customers will be less impacted but still face higher gas prices as supply from Leviathan leaves the market.

Provided the U.S. and its allies in Europe and in the Middle East can strategize to cope with these issues, it appears that Israeli dominance over Iranian skies could bring a much-needed change in Teheran’s nuclear posture. It seems that Israel will continue its strategic bombing campaign for at least a couple of weeks, targeting anti-air, military, and nuclear program sites, weakening Tehran’s capacity to mount counterstrikes and continue its disruptive activities. Crucially, Israel has severely damaged Iranian nuclear enrichment sites like Natanz, creating significant setbacks for Tehran. Israel also reportedly destroyed the Isfahan metallic uranium plant and claimed limited damage to facilities buried in the mountainside in Fordow; and targeted elimination of the top Iranian nuclear program managers, denying Iran the future human capital for its WMD aspirations.

How long the mullahs’ regime will survive under the current pounding is difficult to predict, given the many external and internal factors involved. The regime’s legitimacy is built on a foundation of genocidal hatred of the Jewish state and “resistance” to the “great Satan”, the U.S. The perception that Iran’s military strength is significantly diminished will raise questions about the stability of its political system. There is a network of exiled anti-regime intellectuals, and those in opposition and in prison in Iran could be galvanized by rapid changes. Recent economic hardships have already led to widespread protests - public support may continue to weaken with the added military pressure. The U.S. made a strategic mistake when in 2009 President Barack Obama did much too little, much too late to show support for the Green Revolution that threatened the Ayatollahs – an error that he reportedly admitted in 2022.

The strategic implications of this war will be felt far and wide. Beyond the Middle East, these developments are a clear and present warning to U.S. adversaries, chiefly Russia and China. A successful military operation backed by U.S. military, diplomatic, and intelligence support, will underscore the U.S.’s continued ability to project power and highlight the importance of alliance with Washington.

So, while Israel is flying the planes, the United States is sending an unmistakable message that its multi-decade strategic partnership with Israel is formidable in the face of threats from anti-American, anti-Western authoritarian regimes. Operation Rising Lion may reset the regional power balance in the Middle East in favor of the U.S. and its allies if Washington continues to stand strong to protect America’s vital national interests, including energy security and a more stable and peaceful Middle East.