Markets experienced a significant rebound, increasing by over 4.5% during the holiday-shortened week, fueled by positive domestic and global signals. Both the Nifty and Sensex closed near their weekly highs, reaching 23,851.65 and 78,553.20, respectively. This rally was largely attributed to optimism surrounding the potential deferral of tariffs and exemptions on specific products, raising hopes for upcoming trade negotiations. Market sentiment was also boosted by positive updates regarding a normal monsoon, decreasing retail inflation which heightened expectations for rate cuts, and a generally stable global environment.

Bajaj Broking Research indicated a positive outlook, noting the formation of a sizable bull candle on the weekly chart, suggesting continued upward movement. The index is expected to maintain this positive bias, potentially reaching 24,200-24,300 levels in the coming weeks. They advise using any dips as buying opportunities, with key support at 23,200 levels. Volatility is expected to remain high due to tariff-related developments and the ongoing Q4 earnings season.

Several key events are expected to influence the markets in the coming week. Focus will be on the reaction to Q4 earnings from major companies such as Infosys, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank, along with quarterly results from HCL Technologies, Axis Bank, Hindustan Unilever, and Maruti. The upcoming expiry of April series contracts is also anticipated to increase market volatility. Globally, developments regarding tariffs and their potential impact on world markets will be closely monitored.

Technically, the Nifty has been trading within a 21,700–23,800 range over the past two months and has now reached the upper limit of this range. It has also reclaimed key moving averages, specifically the 100 and 200-day EMAs. Ajit Mishra from Religare Broking anticipates the positive momentum to continue, with a potential upside towards the 24,250–24,600 range. A dip is likely to find support in the 23,000–23,300 zone.

On Friday, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) showed net buying of Rs 4,667.94 crore in Indian equities, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers at Rs 2,006.15 crore.

The rupee gained strength, supported by consistent FII inflows and expectations of continued foreign investment. This sentiment was further enhanced by a rally in Indian equities, particularly in the financial sector. The decline in the dollar index below 99.80 also provided support, as easing trade tensions improved global risk appetite. The combination of strong capital market activity and a softer dollar has helped maintain the rupee's firmness.

Crude Oil WTI Futures closed 3.5% higher at $64.68, driven by concerns over supply disruptions, improving prospects for US-China trade talks, and falling product inventories. China has expressed a willingness to restart trade talks with the U.S., contingent upon certain preconditions. Expectations for easing U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil have diminished after Washington insisted that Iran fully cease its nuclear enrichment and weaponization efforts.