The Virginia Cavaliers men’s basketball team (13-13, 6-9) got run over by a freight train in the form of the Duke Blue Devils on Monday. Standout freshmen Cooper Flagg and Kon Kneuppel were too much for a smaller Virginia team to handle.

Per usual, the ACC schedule-makers decided to give Virginia the back-to-back Duke, UNC matchups. But unfortunately for them, the ’Hoos and Tar Heels (16-11, 9-6) are not living up to their preseason expectations. UNC might be heating up a little bit, however, after consecutive wins against Syracuse and NC State. The Tar Heels’ 97-73 win over the Wolfpack on Wednesday may have been their best performance all season.

Fifth-year senior and former All-American guard R.J. Davis still runs the show for North Carolina, although his numbers have taken a dip from last season. Fourth-year head coach Hubert Davis and the Tar Heels look lost without big-man Armando Bacot holding down the fort.

It’s been five years since UVA won in Chapel Hill. Ron Sanchez and Virginia look to end that streak on Saturday. Here are two things to know, a player to watch, and a prediction for the game.

Saturday, February 22nd at 4:00 ET

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Coach Hubert Davis was the story of college basketball in his first season coaching UNC when he took the eighth-seeded Tar Heels to the National Championship game, besting Duke and spoiling Coach K’s farewell tour in the Final Four.

Fast forward three seasons to the present day, and there are North Carolina fans and college basketball media members questioning if Hubert Davis is the right man for the job. UNC is on the verge of missing the NCAA Tournament for the second time under Davis while being ranked in the top 10 coming into the season.

UNC built a brand on offensive rebounding under Roy Williams, when Hubert Davis was an assistant coach. This season, they rank 222nd in offensive rebounding percentage. If UNC winds up missing the NCAA Tournament this season, and they struggle again next year, it may be an abrupt exit and fall from grace for Coach Davis.

This North Carolina team loves to run, just like every other North Carolina team for the last decade. They rank first in the ACC in adjusted tempo and 25th in Division 1. They want to grab a defensive rebound, throw an outlet pass, and finish a two-on-one fast break with an easy layup. R.J. Davis’ experience as a ball-handler in this UNC offense makes him a serious threat in any fast break situation. Meanwhile, sophomore point guard Elliott Cadeau is one of the best passers in the ACC, and he can find open rim-runners across the court.

If Virginia can slow the Tar Heels down and make them play a half-court game, like Clemson did ten days ago when they beat UNC 85-65, then Virginia can win the game. The ’Hoos have struggled to impose their slow tempo on opponents this season, but they’ll need to if they’re going to leave Chapel Hill with a win. UNC thrives on momentum more than just about any other team in the conference.

RJ Davis is the new “that guy’s still in college?” player in the ACC, succeeding Armando Bacot, Kihei Clark, and many others before. It’ll be his eighth time facing the Cavaliers, where he’s had up-and-down performances primarily based on whether Reece Beekman was guarding him or not.

All jokes aside, he’s still averaging 17.5 points per game this year including eight 20-plus point outings. He’s got deep range, and an incredible feel with the ball in his hands. He isn’t an explosive athlete, but he’s able to maneuver around defenders, using screens to his advantage to find openings for easy 2’s. Like on this play earlier this year:

Dai Dai Ames, Andrew Rohde, or whoever is matched up against Davis needs to be aggressive at the point of the attack, not allowing him to get downhill or get clear separation for three. If the ’Hoos keep him from taking over and slow the UNC fast break down, they should steal a win.

This is a really tough one to predict. KenPom has UNC winning by 10 points. They’ve got a much better offense than the ’Hoos and a more talented roster. But Virginia’s offense has been pretty impressive lately, so a close, high-scoring game is on the table.

Since Carolina shouldn’t be able to dominate the ’Hoos on the glass like some other teams have, Virginia should be able to hang around against a mediocre defense. For the sake of entertainment, I think we get a high-scoring, punch-for-punch game where threes are falling and college players are doing college player things by creating some chaos.

But in the matchup between nice-guy head coaches who might not be coaching for their respective teams much longer, I’m taking the coach that has gone to a national championship game. The Heels win it in the final five minutes with an R.J. Davis-led scoring run.

North Carolina 83, Virginia 75