Indian equities are poised for a flat-to-positive start on Friday, June 20, tracking GIFT Nifty futures, which rose 10 points to 24,794 in early trade. The undertone, however, remains cautious amid persistent global concerns from escalating tensions in the Middle East to the US Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance and looming tariff threats.

Geopolitical risk continues to cast a shadow over investor confidence, as the Israel-Iran conflict intensifies without signs of de-escalation. Meanwhile, the US Fed’s commentary indicating a delayed rate-cut cycle and the nearing US reciprocal tariff deadline have added to market jitters. Analysts expect consolidation to dominate the trading setup unless a strong positive trigger emerges.

On the charts, the Nifty50 has slipped below its 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), reinforcing a short-term bearish view. Analysts note that unless the index climbs above 24,850, bearish undertones may persist. Immediate support is seen at 24,550, a level that will be crucial for bulls to defend.

The India VIX index, a measure of market volatility, declined marginally by 0.14 per cent to 14.26 levels. However, with heightened global tensions and key events lined up, volatility may spike in the sessions ahead.

Asian equities traded with a mixed bias. Japan’s Topix rose 0.1 per cent, while Australia’s ASX200 remained flat. US markets were shut Thursday for Juneteenth, but S&P 500 futures dipped 0.2 per cent during early Asia hours, hinting at possible weakness ahead.

Oil prices are set for their third consecutive weekly gain, driven by geopolitical risk premium. However, prices dipped slightly in early trade on Friday. Gold remained flat, supported by safe-haven demand amid fears of broader conflict in the Middle East.

The Indian rupee weakened for the third straight session, closing 30 paise lower at 86.73 per US dollar, dragged by strong greenback and rising crude. On the institutional front, FIIs net sold equities worth Rs 934 crore on Thursday, while domestic institutional investors (DIIs) bought Rs 606 crore.

The following stocks are in the F&O ban list today:

These stocks have crossed 95 per cent of the market-wide position limit and are therefore restricted for derivative trading.

While the GIFT Nifty hints at a stable start, traders must brace for sudden swings amid evolving geopolitical risks. Experts advise a stock-specific approach and caution against aggressive long positions unless the index convincingly crosses the 24,850 mark.